Bernstein's Latest Research: US Data Center Construction Accelerates, BTM Power Penetration Soars

The US data center construction boom continues to heat up.

According to the latest monthly data center capacity tracking report released by Bernstein Research, as of April 2026, the total pipeline of data center projects in North America has reached 295GW, expanding more than threefold from a year earlier, with under-construction capacity adding a record 6.5GW in a single month.

Meanwhile, the rapid penetration of behind-the-meter (BTM) technology is reshaping the industry landscape and creating a huge demand for electrical equipment and power generation manufacturers.

The Construction Wave: Pipeline, Start-up, and Stranded Synchronous Growth

In April, the North American data center project pipeline increased by 5% month-on-month, adding 14GW to reach 295GW. Amazon added 5.2GW to the pipeline in a single month, the largest increase among hyperscale cloud vendors; developers contributed 86% of this month's increment overall. Texas continues to lead the nation with a new addition of 6GW, accounting for 46% of the total increase this month.

In terms of under-construction capacity, 6.5GW started in April, bringing the total to 59GW, a year-on-year increase of 176%. Hostellers Vantage Data Centers, Meta, and Amazon are the main drivers for this month's start-ups. It is worth noting that the current under-construction capacity is about 23% higher than the operational capacity (approximately 48GW), and at the current construction rate, it will take about 10 years to exhaust the existing pipeline.

However, with the construction boom comes increasingly prominent implementation resistance. Stranded capacity - including canceled, delayed, and unapproved projects - rose to 32.4GW in April, accounting for 11% of the total pipeline, up from 7%-9% last summer, an increase of more than 36 times year-on-year. Bernstein attributes this trend to the continuous spread of local community opposition (NIMBY).

The Key Variable: BTM Power Moves from the Periphery to the Mainstream

Behind-the-meter power is the most discussed structural change in this report. BTM refers to the model where data centers build their own power generation facilities and supply power directly without going through the public grid.

The data shows that the penetration rate of BTM in operational data centers is only 4%, but this proportion has risen to 22% in under-construction capacity and as high as 39% in the project pipeline - the three figures outline a steep penetration curve, indicating that BTM will move from an industry supporting role to a mainstream option in the next few years.

The core logic driving this change is speed. According to data from emerging cloud service provider Crusoe, BTM data center projects can be completed and powered on average within 18 months, while traditional grid-connected paths often take several years. In the context of an AI infrastructure arms race, this time difference has decisive competitive implications.

Looking at the operator structure, emerging cloud service providers have the highest dependency on BTM, with a pipeline BTM share of 66%; developers are at 40%; hyperscale cloud vendors are at 36%. The Stargate project (a consortium of SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle) is a core force driving the expansion of hyperscale cloud vendor BTM pipelines, contributing about 10GW; Meta dominates the built capacity of hyperscale cloud vendors' BTM, holding the vast majority of the current 4.5GW scale.

The spillover effect of BTM on the industry chain is also not negligible. Bernstein points out that BTM projects spend about 30% more on electrical distribution equipment than pure grid-connected projects, providing additional benefits to electrical equipment manufacturers such as Eaton (ETN) and Hubbell (HUBB). On the power generation side, the large-scale expansion of BTM directly supports Caterpillar's (CAT) strategic plan to increase large engine capacity by 3 times and provides a market foundation for Cummins (CMI) to enter the main power market.

The Trillion-Dollar Race: Who is Mining in the Data Center Wave

Based on the total pipeline of 295GW and the single-megawatt dollar opportunities disclosed by various companies, Bernstein has calculated the full potential market for each major vendor. Among them, Quanta Services (PWR) tops the list with a TAM of up to 3.98 trillion dollars based on construction labor demand; among physical infrastructure manufacturers, Vertiv (VRT), Legrand (LR.FP), and Schneider