Bitcoin August Put Options Take the Lead as Sentiment Turns Bearish
N.R. Finch
The $60,000-strike put on Deribit is now the single largest contract by open interest at $1.17 billion, while August's historical median return sits at −7.51% — bearish positioning is building fast.
Which contract holds the most open interest?
The $60,000-strike put option now carries $1.17 billion in notional open interest on Deribit, surpassing every call contract on the platform.
This means → the single biggest directional bet has flipped from "price goes up" to "price goes down" — a clear shift in where the weight of money sits.
Where did the bullish bets go?
Ahead of the Fed rate decision, the $70,000 and $72,000 calls each held roughly $2.5 billion in notional open interest. Some traders were betting Bitcoin would rally to $72,000 once the decision landed.
That bet did not pay off. Both contracts expired Friday at UTC 08:00 and saw heavy unwinding; the $70,000 call is now down to $943 million, the $72,000 call to $888 million.
In plain terms = the bulls lost their wager en masse. After expiry, their positions were cut in half — the bears are the ones left standing.
How large was the expiry?
Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring Friday carried a combined notional value of roughly $10 billion.
This means → an expiry of that size alone can jolt short-term prices, because market makers must rapidly rebalance their hedges.
What does seasonality say?
Since 2013, Bitcoin's median July return is +8.61%. This July the price rose 8.9%, closely matching the historical median.
A positive July, however, is typically followed by a negative August — the median August return is −7.51%.
In plain terms = the figure used here is the median (line up every year's return and pick the middle one), not the average. That filters out freak months and shows the most common outcome. This reflects a recurring pattern: Bitcoin rallies in July, then pulls back in August.
Where does the price sit now?
Bitcoin is trading at roughly $63,822. Last month it briefly dipped below $60,000 before rebounding above $63,000.
Options positioning has tilted from calls to puts. Combined with the seasonal tendency toward negative August returns, cautious sentiment is accumulating.
This means → the price has bounced, yet demand for "insurance" (puts) far exceeds demand for "lottery tickets" (calls) — the rebound has not erased the market's downside worry.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.