Bitcoin Bottom Signals Emerge as Analysts Remain Divided
0xBroomberg
Bitcoin has pulled back roughly 50% from its record high near $126,000 and spent nearly two months consolidating in the $60,000 range; chart analysts say this is the clearest bottoming evidence yet, but they disagree sharply on what comes next.
How far has Bitcoin fallen, and where does it sit now?
Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 last October, broke below $70,000 in early June, and has since consolidated in the $60,000 range for nearly two months.
The 200-day moving average — the average closing price over the past 200 days, a widely watched long-term trend line — sits around $72,000. Bitcoin has traded below it since last November.
This means → price has stayed under its long-term trend line for over half a year — technically still a bear-market structure.
What are the bulls seeing?
Oppenheimer analyst Ari Wald flagged a bullish divergence on Bitcoin's weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index, a momentum gauge) — price made a new low, but the force of the decline is weakening.
He noted price has retraced about 60% of the 2022–2025 rally and held above $58,000: "This is the most constructive bottoming evidence we have seen to date."
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies echoed the view, saying momentum indicators are improving and selling pressure may be fading: "Bitcoin's cyclical downtrend appears to be maturing; the long-term oversold condition suggests a basing phase may have begun."
In plain terms = both bulls share one core logic: although price remains low, each successive drop is weaker than the last — the sellers are running out of coins to sell.
What worries the bears?
Read Harvey of Wolfe Research takes the opposite stance: Bitcoin remains in a clear downtrend, trading below a downward-sloping 200-day moving average.
He expects the current bounce to stall near $65,000, below the 200-day line, and roll over again — "this has happened multiple times this year."
Harvey also invoked Bitcoin's four-year cycle — a historical pattern of three years up, one year down — arguing the roadmap points to a bottom in October, with price potentially below $40,000.
This means → the bearish case treats the current "stabilization" as a pause within a larger decline, not a genuine bottom.
Is Bitcoin building a bottom — or just catching its breath mid-fall?
BULL
Downside momentum is fading
Weekly RSI shows bullish divergence; price holds above $58,000.
Deeply oversold
Long-term oversold readings suggest selling pressure is lifting and basing may have begun.
BEAR
Downtrend is intact
Price remains below a declining 200-day MA; rallies have failed repeatedly.
Four-year cycle points lower
Historical pattern suggests the true bottom arrives in October, possibly below $40,000.
In plain terms = both sides are reading the same chart, but one says 'the selling is exhausted' while the other says 'the selling isn't done' — the real disagreement is whether this decline is decelerating or just pausing.
What signal would settle the debate?
All three analysts agree on one thing: whether Bitcoin can reclaim the 200-day moving average near $72,000 is the key test for whether this bounce can become a genuine trend reversal.
Even the bullish Wald has not ruled out "a final flush similar to Q4 2022" — acknowledging one more sharp drop may come before a bottom is confirmed.
This means → regardless of which side you lean toward, the 200-day line (~$72,000) is the bull-bear dividing line: reclaim it, and the trend may flip; fail there, and the bearish thesis stays intact.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.