Bitcoin May Have Met Initial Bottom Structure Conditions

Crypto chain analyst Murphy's latest analysis published on platform X suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating in the range of $60,000 to $70,000 for nearly two months. However, significant large-scale buying only occurred at one price point—$66,000—where 440,000 BTC have accumulated, with 240,000 of these changing hands between February and April this year, making it the most concentrated core area of this cycle's chip accumulation. On the surface, $60,000 appears to be the lowest price of this cycle, but the amount of funds that successfully bottom-fished and held positions in the $60,000 to $63,000 range is extremely scarce. Looking at the current chip distribution, the positions in this range have hardly changed compared to January—this implies that even if funds entered the market at these levels, most have chosen to realize gains on the way up. Thus, when determining the start of the bottom structure, the price's lowest point should not be the anchor; the concentrated chip turnover area should be the benchmark. Judging by the current situation, the turnover in the $78,000 to $82,000 range remains insufficient, with cautious capital inflows and unresolved differences. However, the proportion of chips in the $65,000 to $78,000 range has reached 13.8%, which provides a certain foundation for a bottom structure. Comparing this with the period leading up to the FTX collapse in October 2022, the proportion of chips in the $18,000 to $23,000 range was 18.7%, differing by about five percentage points. However, there is a key variable in this cycle that must not be overlooked: the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the continuous buying by institutions such as MicroStrategy have locked nearly 13% of circulating chips at relatively high levels, leaving fewer chips for allocation across other price ranges. Taking all the above factors into account, the 13.8% chip proportion in the $65,000 to $78,000 range has preliminarily met the basic conditions for a bottom structure. If the price can revisit this range a second time and form an effective turnover again, the bottom foundation will be further solidified. At that point, the "anti-fall support" in this area will be more solid than at any historical moment. *The above content is compiled from the latest analysis by chain analyst Murphy on platform X and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice.*