Bitwise: Bitcoin's Maximum Downside Risk to $48,000
Alina Collins
Bitwise research head André Dragosch said at BTC Prague that Bitcoin faces up to 20% further downside, with $48,000 — the long-term holder cost basis — as the 'max pain' scenario. This correction could run deeper than most investors expect.
Where does the $48,000 number come from?
Dragosch mapped three structural support levels below spot: the 200-week moving average at ~$61,000, the realized price (the average price of all Bitcoin weighted by last on-chain transfer) at ~$56,000, and the long-term holder cost basis at ~$48,000.
This means → $48,000 is where even the most patient holders — those who rarely sell — would be underwater. Historically, that zone marks cycle bottoms.
Bitwise's experimental "cycle-bottom probability model" started rising last week, but on-chain indicators have not yet hit the extreme levels typically seen at historical cycle lows.
Who is driving the selling pressure?
Dragosch attributed this leg down primarily to net outflows from exchange-traded products (ETPs) — roughly $2 billion per week, equivalent to about 50,000 BTC effectively sold in a short window.
In plain terms = this is not retail panic. Institutions are pulling capital through ETF-type vehicles at a pace matching a mid-size miner's entire annual output.
He drew a line between that and Strategy's recent symbolic sale of 32 BTC, stressing that corporate treasury buying from Strategy and peers has not meaningfully slowed.
Why does Galaxy see an even lower floor?
Galaxy research head Alex Thorn is more conservative: only 4 of 13 historical bottom indicators have triggered so far — Bitcoin has not bottomed yet.
Galaxy's base case puts the floor at $40,000–$46,000, potentially reached between now and Q4 2026.
This reflects a shared conviction — both firms believe this cycle's bottom is higher than past cycles — but an ~$8,000 gap in where they place it: Bitwise at $48,000, Galaxy at $40,000–$46,000.
Do historical drawdown rules still apply?
Galaxy noted that the historical assumption of a 75%–80% peak-to-trough drawdown is losing relevance this cycle.
This means → Bitcoin's cycle amplitude is compressing. Each bull-bear swing is smaller than the last, so using old-cycle drawdown templates overstates how far the price can fall.
In plain terms = the "halve it, then halve it again" script from earlier cycles probably won't replay — but $40,000–$48,000 remains a real risk band.
Where do altcoins and the broader market stand now?
Bitcoin fell ~28% from the May high of ~$82,000 to below $60,000, then recovered to above $63,300 at time of reporting — up ~0.9% in 24 hours, with a market cap of ~$1.3 trillion.
Dragosch said Bitwise's altcoin excitement index currently shows no signal; whether an alt-season begins hinges on passage of the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Clarity Act.
Polymarket prices the bill's chance of passing this year at ~60%. This means → the next altcoin wave depends not on market sentiment but on the pace of regulatory legislation.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.