Bloomberg Intelligence: China's National Team May Need to Step Up Share Purchases to Stabilize Markets
nashnova research
The CSI 300 has fallen for 10 straight weeks, nearing bear-market territory. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the national team still holds about $188 billion in dry powder — yet its current buying pace is slower than in the last two rescues. The constraint isn't capacity; it's willingness.
How much firepower does the national team have left?
Central Huijin — the state vehicle that buys and sells financial assets on Beijing's behalf — raised roughly $231 billion through ETF sales in the first half of the year and has deployed only about $43 billion since resuming purchases in July.
This means → roughly $188 billion remains on the books, enough to sustain operations for about 75 trading days at the recent pace.
In plain terms = the money is there. The question is how fast Beijing is willing to spend it.
Why is the buying pace slower this time?
Between October 9 and 20, the national team purchased an estimated $15 billion — a slower clip than during the July 2026 tech selloff rescue.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote plainly: "Capacity is not the constraint — willingness is."
This reflects a cautious stance: with global equities offering no rebound tailwind, policymakers are still gauging how much to commit and for how long.
Why is the buying mix tilting toward tech?
Since October, the CSI 300's share of estimated national-team purchases has dropped to about 45%, below its historical average of 55%. The STAR 50 and ChiNext combined share has jumped from 11% to roughly 32%.
This means → the buying direction aligns with Beijing's push to support homegrown tech and keep the equity-financing channel open.
The STAR 50 is down nearly 40% from its peak — one of the worst-performing indices in the global AI pullback. Put simply = the hardest-hit tech board is getting priority support.
Can national-team buying reverse the decline?
Bloomberg Intelligence draws a critical distinction: panic selling can be contained once sellers are exhausted, but a sustained decline driven by weak sentiment is far harder to turn — requiring "more capital and policy support than any previous rescue."
The 2024 playbook is instructive. National-team ETF purchases cushioned the market through the summer, but sentiment only truly shifted after a broader policy stimulus package landed in September.
This means → buying alone is triage, not cure. A lasting recovery requires a wider policy response.
What do market participants think?
Zhu Zhenxin, head of research at Beijing Jianjin Investment, said: "If the market falls too fast, the national team may keep buying — but intervention may not be enough to reverse it."
He added that if the decline slows or the market trades sideways, purchases could simply stop.
In plain terms = the national team acts more as a speed bump than a steering wheel — it can slow the car down, but fundamentals ultimately decide the direction.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。