BofA: Consumer Stocks, REITs, Bitcoin and Other Assets Set to Benefit If Iran Peace Deal Is Reached
Taylor Wilson
BofA strategist Hartnett published a contrarian "peace winners" list — consumer stocks, REITs, Bitcoin, gold, and EM currencies stand to rally if a US-Iran deal materializes, but the agreement itself remains unconfirmed.
Why does Hartnett think Trump needs a deal urgently?
Trump's inflation approval rating has dropped to 27%, below predecessor Biden. US crude inventories sit at a 45-year low, and this week's CPI print topped 4% year-on-year.
This means → the White House faces mounting political pressure on prices. A deal with Iran could unlock crude supply, push oil prices down, and cool inflation indirectly.
Hartnett's thesis: boosting asset prices is the most efficient path to the "America First" agenda — a peace deal delivers both "lower oil" and "higher assets" at once.
Which assets made the "peace winners" list?
REITs have already hit new highs; Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) is up 9% year-to-date. Consumer discretionary (XLY) has bounced more than 10% from its April low.
European equities (SXXP) have recovered to pre-conflict levels, after a 10% drawdown in April. In plain terms = Europe has priced in much of the peace expectation, but not all of it.
Bitcoin is down 27% year-to-date; gold is down 2%. Both have de-leveraged significantly, and Hartnett sees reversal potential. The Indian rupee (−5%) and Indonesian rupiah (−6.5%) — hit hardest by surging oil prices — are his top EM currency picks.
Why is the bull-bear indicator saying "not yet"?
Hartnett's bull-bear indicator reads 8.8 out of 10, still in sell-signal territory. This means → sentiment is already overheated; even a genuine peace catalyst carries short-term pullback risk.
The indicator has triggered 17 sell signals since 2002, with a hit rate of roughly 60%. After each trigger, global equities fell an average of 2–3% over the following two to three months.
He advises investors to keep trimming positions until new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turns hawkish at the July 29 meeting and financial conditions tighten to a peak.
Is the deal itself credible?
Iran's Fars News Agency quoted sources close to the negotiating team calling reports that a deal "has been finalized and will be signed Sunday in Geneva" as "completely baseless."
Trump himself posted on social media that the draft published by Iranian media "has nothing to do with what the two sides agreed to in writing."
This reflects a critical contradiction: every asset-allocation thesis above rests on the deal actually landing — yet both sides dispute even the text's contents. Whether the peace expectation converts into an actual agreement remains the single largest uncertainty.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.