Brent Crude Oil Rises 16% This Week to $106

On April 24th, oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive trading day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to around $97 per barrel, while Brent crude approached $106 per barrel in early trading, with a cumulative increase of about 16% for the week. The core logic behind this surge is singular: the prospects of US-Iran negotiations have once again been cast into doubt, and the market has begun to price in a longer period of confrontation.

According to the latest media reports, Trump's series of posts on Truth Social, along with his continued push for a maritime blockade of Iranian ports, are undermining the negotiation process conducted through intermediaries such as Pakistan—as two American officials familiar with the matter have stated. Iranian negotiators also believe these posts are intended to humiliate the leadership in Tehran, making them less willing to reach an agreement.

Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President at BOK Financial Securities, stated: “Tensions are ratcheting up further—the market is now pricing a more intense, longer-lasting confrontation.”

Trump's Posts, the "Stumbling Block" in Negotiations

Trump wrote in his posts: “Iran does not want to close the Strait of Hormuz; they want it open so they can earn $500 million a day.” He also described the newly elected President of Iran as “far less radical and much smarter than his predecessor”.

Iran's Speaker of Parliament and Chief Negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, characterized these posts as "media warfare and public opinion manipulation". Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Wednesday that Iran is open to negotiations with the US, but “blockades and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations”.

In response, an unnamed White House spokesperson stated: “President Trump has no intention of protecting the面子 of Iranian leaders; he takes negotiations seriously, with the goal of ensuring the long-term national security of the United States.”

Alex Vatanka, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute specializing in Iran, bluntly stated : “Trump’s posting style is undermining his own desire for diplomacy to work. For a regime like Iran, the effective approach is quiet and low-key, not high-profile, not on media, not attacking Iranian leaders on social media.”

Divisions Emerge Within the Advisory Team

While Trump continues to "output" on social media, according to media citing American officials, his advisory team has shown a clear split in strategy.

One faction believes that the blockade should continue and time should be bought. The reason is that Iran, unable to export oil normally, may "run out of storage" in its oil tanks within weeks, forcing it to make greater concessions. For this faction, Trump's social media posts are "running down the clock".

Trump stated to reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday that he agrees with this assessment and is in no rush to reach an agreement: "Do you know who is under time pressure? It's them. Because if their oil doesn’t move, their entire oil infrastructure will 'explode'—they have nowhere to store it.”

The opposing faction holds the opposite view. These advisers believe that now is the time to seek a way out. They worry that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues for too long, high oil prices will inflict deeper economic wounds domestically and trigger political blowback in the November midterm elections. For this faction, Trump's tough rhetoric may be undermining the progress that negotiators have