BYD and Geely Financial Reports About to be Announced, Market Expectations Divergent

The war in Iran has driven up oil prices, benefiting the overall electric vehicle sector, but the stock performance of major Chinese automakers has shown a clear divergence. Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, Geely Automobile's Hong Kong shares have risen by about 39%, while BYD's stock has only increased by about 12% during the same period.

The two companies announced their financial reports this week, providing a fundamental verification for the recent divergence. BYD's results will be released on Tuesday, with market expectations of a third consecutive quarter of revenue decline; Geely is expected to achieve double-digit sales growth, with financial reports scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Short interest data also confirms this divergence - according to S3 Partners, BYD's short interest has risen to about 6.5%, a high for the past eight months; Geely's short interest has dropped from over 4% last month to about 3.5%.

The core of investors' attention lies in whether overseas markets can effectively compensate for domestic pressure. Domestic competition continues to intensify, with BYD's average discount rate reaching a record 10% in March. Gavekal Capital portfolio manager Leonid Mironov pointed out that Geely has accurately grasped the timing of vehicle generation changes, perfectly launching modifications just before the most intense competition, "it's 2026 that BYD is catching up".

The performance of other automakers is also divergent. NIO, with its strong vehicle momentum, has joined the sector's leaders, XPeng has fallen due to weak quarterly revenue expectations, and Xiaomi is under pressure due to the drag of its smartphone business.

Bloomberg cited Allspring Global Investments portfolio manager Gary Tan, saying that electric investment trading is entering a more selective phase, and continuous oil price shocks are beginning to suppress broader consumer demand, including car purchases. The key issue for investors to focus on is which companies can substantially reduce the total cost of car use while protecting profit margins.