BYD Executive: China's EV Penetration Rate Will Soon Approach 80%
Taylor Wilson
BYD's executive VP Stella Li says China's NEV penetration will "soon approach 80%," while rival NIO calls the industry's "golden era over" — the two biggest Chinese EV makers read the same market in opposite directions, and the split itself is the signal.
Already at 62.9% — what's the case for 80%?
China's CPCA data: NEVs already passed half of new car sales in 2024; penetration hit a record 62.9% in May 2025.
Li's anchor is fast-charging tech — BYD's charger reportedly reaches 70% in five minutes. She says current Chinese demand is roughly twice actual deliveries.
This means → her "80%" is not a long-range forecast but an extrapolation from "demand is already there, supply hasn't caught up."
In the same month, ICE vehicle sales fell 39% year-on-year; Middle East tensions pushing up oil prices are seen as a key driver.
NIO says "the golden era is over" — who's right?
BYD says "soon 80%"; NIO says "golden era over" — opposite reads on the same market from two top players.
In plain terms = BYD is the price-war winner, growing stronger on scale and cost; NIO targets the premium segment and feels the slowdown more acutely.
This reflects a market where aggregate optimism and structural divergence coexist — the pie is growing, but not every player gets a bigger slice.
What's the next battleground? Assisted driving and chips
Li's call: the next round of competition centers on driver-assistance features.
On May 28 BYD expanded insurance coverage for "L2+" users — a driving mode that assists with steering and speed but still requires human oversight. Li says the move can lift actual usage rates by 5 percentage points to at least 95%.
This means → using insurance to clear the psychological barrier of "afraid to turn it on" — not a tech upgrade, but a go-to-market upgrade.
In-house chips — real commitment or early-stage noise?
BYD disclosed plans for an in-house driver-assistance chip, with roughly 7,000 engineers deployed in semiconductor R&D.
Yet the company will still rely primarily on Nvidia chipsets for now; 7,000 people account for less than 1% of BYD's 869,600+ workforce.
In plain terms = the in-house chip effort is still at the "seeding" stage. Nvidia remains the main supplier — a real replacement is a long way off.
Global expansion: is being China's No. 1 enough?
Li said BYD targets 75% local production in Europe and denied labor-rights allegations at its Hungary plant.
Leon Cheng of Asia-Pacific consultancy YCP noted: BYD's May China sales were roughly three times the No. 2 NEV maker's, yet "the question is not just whether BYD can hold its lead in China, but whether it can defend its global position."
This means → BYD had posted eight consecutive months of year-on-year sales declines before May finally broke the streak — dominance at home cannot mask the fact that the overseas strategy is still unproven.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.