Ceasefire Extension and Strong Earnings Drive New Highs for S&P 500, Nasdaq

Trump announced on Wednesday the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement for an additional 3 to 5 days,叠加strong first-quarter corporate earnings, US stocks quickly recovered from the previous two days of consecutive pullbacks.

On Wednesday, the S&P and Nasdaq closed at new highs, the chip index racked up its sixteenth consecutive gain, while oil prices surged in tandem, presenting a diverging trend with the market's optimistic sentiment.

(Comparison of US stocks, bonds, and oil trends)

Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire at the request of the Pakistani mediators, stating that US-Iran talks could resume as early as Friday, but Iran later denied news of possible talks on Friday.

The Iranian president expressed a "welcome dialogue and agreement," but also criticized Trump for "inconsistencies between words and actions"; the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and Chief Negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that a comprehensive ceasefire cannot be achieved without lifting the blockade.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices surged, with three consecutive days of gains this week, WTI crude oil futures rebounded to levels before the breakdown of negotiations, and Brent crude approached $102.

(Crude oil futures intraday trend)

Ultima Markets analyst Elon Gu said:

The US stock market suggests that investors have downplayed short-term geopolitical disturbances. At the same time, the fundamentals of a continuous contraction in oil supply continue to dominate pricing, forming an independent support for oil prices.

On Wednesday, the three major US stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 index closing at a new high, and the Nasdaq index刷新historical highs, with technology stocks leading the current rally. The S&P 500 technology sector rose by about 2%, performing the best among the 11 sectors.

(US stock benchmark index intraday trend)

Chip stocks set the longest record of consecutive daily gains in history, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closing up about 2.7%, marking the sixteenth consecutive trading day on the rise, the longest since records began in 1994.

(Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's sixteen-day rally, the longest since records began in 1994)

The first-quarter earnings season has been outstanding so far, providing important fundamental support for the market.

According to Bloomberg data, among the S&P 500 components that have disclosed first-quarter performance, about 81% have exceeded analysts' expectations for earnings per share; according to LSEG data, the overall earnings growth rate for the first quarter is about 14%.

Goldman Sachs data shows that since late January of this year, the S&P 500's 2026 and 2027 earnings per share estimates have been raised by