Central Bank Gold Purchases Hit Near Two-Year High as Investors Expect Gold to Set New Records Within Two Years
nashnova research
Central banks bought roughly 63 tonnes of gold in September, the highest monthly total since November 2024; fund managers at a London conference predict gold will surpass its January all-time high within two years, driven by weakening dollar credibility and sustained official-sector accumulation.
Gold pulled back from $5,500 to $4,075 — where does that leave us?
Gold fell 2% on Wednesday to $4,075 per troy ounce, down roughly 26% from the $5,500 record set in January.
Yet $4,075 remains in historically elevated territory. This means → this is a pullback after a spike, not a collapse — the market is repricing gold's "fair center."
Endeavour Mining CEO Ian Cockerill's read: "Is $4,000 the floor? I don't know. But if it isn't, it's very close to the launch pad for the next leg up."
Who is buying with real money?
World Gold Council preliminary data: central banks purchased roughly 63 tonnes in September — the highest single month in nearly two years.
Standard Chartered's global head of commodities research, Suki Cooper, confirmed that official-sector demand remains "very strong," even though some countries sold gold this year to raise funds after the U.S.–Iran war broke out.
The People's Bank of China has been steadily adding to reserves in recent months; gold now accounts for 9% of its total reserves, roughly 2,410 tonnes.
This reflects something stronger than analyst forecasts — central banks are voting with real capital, signaling active preparation for a less dollar-centric system.
Why are these people confident gold sets a new record within two years?
Troy Asset Management fund manager Charlotte Yonge predicts a new high within 12 to 18 months. Her logic chain: government fiscal positions are deteriorating → central banks will print money again in the next recession → "gold cannot be printed the same way" — natural scarcity is the ultimate moat.
Aon Investments' EMEA delegated CIO Paul Carne sees a new high within two years. He points to a different driver: the dollar has been "weaponized" — used as a geopolitical pressure tool — → nations actively seek alternative reserve assets → gold is the most obvious one.
In plain terms = both managers are betting not on a short-term trade but on a structural shift — as global trust in the dollar erodes, gold's appeal as a "no-sovereign-risk asset" keeps climbing.
Beyond central banks, who else is piling in?
Allied Gold chairman and CEO Peter Marrone notes that family offices — private firms managing ultra-high-net-worth wealth — are flooding into the gold market.
Their playbook: rotating assets out of government bonds and into gold for diversification.
Yonge adds that emerging-market institutions are looking for reserve alternatives beyond the dollar, and gold is more likely than the euro or yen to fill that role.
This means → the buyer base is shifting from "hedge trade" to "strategic allocation" — the people buying now do not plan to sell soon.
What is the biggest short-term headwind?
Expectations that the Fed may raise rates again are weighing on gold — higher rates push the dollar and real yields up, both negatives for gold.
In plain terms = gold pays no interest; the higher rates go, the greater the "opportunity cost" of holding it, and short-term money tends to leave.
But if central bank buying persists and dollar credibility keeps eroding, the answer to "can $4,000 hold?" will become clear over the coming quarters.
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