Chile Cuts 2026 Copper Output Forecast Again to 5.27 Million Tons
Nashnova编辑部
Chile's Cochilco cut its 2026 copper output forecast for a second straight quarter to 5.27 million tonnes, a 2.6% year-on-year drop; global copper supply-demand mismatch is widening, and the agency raised its price forecast to $5.95 per pound.
Why is the output forecast being cut again?
Cochilco (Chile's state copper commission) on Tuesday lowered its 2026 copper output forecast to 5.27 million tonnes — down from 5.30 million last quarter and well below the earlier 5.60 million estimate.
The main drag: an "unusually weak" first half. State miner Codelco saw output plunge 14% year-on-year; BHP-operated mines also underperformed.
This means → the world's largest copper-producing country has admitted for two consecutive quarters that it cannot mine as much as planned. The supply-side pressure is structural, not a one-off.
How tight is the global copper supply-demand gap?
Cochilco projects global mine copper output will grow just 0.2% in 2026, while demand growth reaches 1.9% — supply is nearly flat; demand is accelerating.
The key demand drivers are electrification, grid buildout, and data-center expansion — the highest-certainty copper-consuming themes of the next several years.
In plain terms = copper supply cannot keep up with the appetite of the "electrification era." The market buffer is razor-thin; any additional mine disruption could push prices higher almost immediately.
Why is the price forecast going up instead?
Cochilco raised its 2026 average copper price forecast from $5.55 to $5.95 per pound, a roughly 7% increase; the 2027 forecast stays at $5.10.
This reflects the agency's judgment: near-term supply tightness is enough to support a higher copper-price floor, even though the refined-copper market is still in slight surplus.
In plain terms = refined copper is adequate for now, but persistent mine-level disruptions plus declining ore grades mean the market is already pricing in a tighter future.
Can the 2027 rebound actually deliver?
Cochilco expects Chilean copper output to rebound 5.2% to 5.55 million tonnes in 2027. Some recovery is already showing in H2 — Codelco's El Teniente and Salvador mines are improving.
Yet ongoing mine disruptions and falling ore grades mean any further supply shock will be hard for the market to absorb.
This means → whether the 2027 rebound materialises is the key test of the "copper stays structurally tight" thesis. If it falls short again, the copper-price floor may be forced even higher.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.