Chile Snowstorm Disrupts Copper Mines, Strategists Warn Copper Prices May Hit New Highs
Miles Bennett
Extreme blizzards in Chile have shut down several major copper mines, compounding an already tight global supply. Strategists warn copper may break its all-time high again — a signal of rising cost pressure across power grids, AI infrastructure, and clean-energy supply chains.
What happened in Chile?
Heavy snowfall, flooding, and high winds have killed 13 people and disrupted operations at Anglo American, Antofagasta, Lundin Mining, and state-owned Codelco.
Chile produces more than one-fifth of the world's copper. This means → any shutdown here is not a local event but a systemic shock to global supply.
Copper had already hit a record $6.70 per pound ($13,643 per metric ton) on June 2. The blizzard adds fresh uncertainty on top of an already elevated price.
Which mines are hit hardest?
Lundin Mining's Caserones mine in northern Chile shut down on July 18 after heavy snow damaged power lines. Recovery is expected to take two to three weeks.
Antofagasta has suspended mining and processing at its Los Pelambres mine; Barrick Gold evacuated staff due to extreme weather.
Lundin's Candelaria mine was affected by rainfall but kept running on existing ore stockpiles and has since returned to full production. In plain terms = big miners have inventory buffers; smaller operators do not.
Why was copper supply already tight?
Three forces were pushing copper higher before the blizzard: U.S. tariff expectations, China's tightening of scrap-copper supply, and strong demand for refined copper from power-grid and AI-infrastructure buildouts.
StoneX strategist Natalie Scott-Gray noted Chile has cut its 2025 copper-output forecast by 2% to 5.3 million tonnes — what she expects to be the country's second consecutive year of declining output.
This reflects a structural tightening trend, not a one-off weather disruption layered on top of stable supply.
Is the blizzard impact temporary or lasting?
Scott-Gray characterised the storm's effect on major producers as "temporary and limited," noting that smaller, less operationally flexible miners are harder hit.
But she warned: if mine supply suffers further setbacks, buyers will compete for an even smaller pool of available copper, pushing prices higher.
ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey was more direct: with the market already facing supply disruptions and tighter concentrate availability, sustained weather-related shutdowns in Chile could provide additional price support.
How do mining majors see copper's future?
Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad said the company is "very, very bullish" on copper fundamentals and has reshaped the business into "a copper-centric mining company."
The company's first-half EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, a core measure of operating profitability — rose 35% year-on-year to $4 billion, partly on "favourable" copper prices.
This means → the largest miners are backing copper's long-term demand with real capital allocation — a stronger signal than any forecast report.
What decides whether copper hits a new record?
Two variables hold the answer: whether Chile's mine shutdowns escalate into lasting infrastructure damage, and the final direction of U.S. tariff policy.
Both remain highly uncertain. Put simply = no one can give a definitive answer, but both the supply side and demand side are moving in the direction of higher prices.
For investors, short-term copper volatility hinges on the speed of weather recovery; the medium-term trajectory depends on policy outcomes and structural demand shifts.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.