China's Crude Oil Imports Rebound in July, Restocking May Resume in Q4
Taylor Wilson
Chinese refiners have returned to the market for discounted Middle Eastern crude, with July imports forecast at ~7.6 million barrels per day — up ~19% from June. Multiple agencies expect strategic-reserve restocking to begin as early as Q4, signaling that the world's largest oil buyer is preparing to come back.
How much have imports actually risen?
Energy Aspects forecasts July seaborne and pipeline imports at ~7.6 million bpd, up ~19% from June.
By November, volumes should exceed 11 million bpd, near pre-conflict levels.
This means → China's crude imports are tracing a V-shaped recovery from months of weakness, with Q4 as the pivotal turn.
Who is buying — and from where?
Independent refiners such as Rongsheng Petrochemical have purchased cargoes from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. Unipec, the trading arm of Sinopec, also bought from the UAE.
Prices from these origins fell because cargoes had piled up. In plain terms = sellers needed to move oil, and Chinese buyers seized the discount.
After Washington revoked temporary Iran-oil waivers, millions of barrels of sanctioned crude sit on tankers seeking buyers. Chinese private refiners are seen as the most likely takers, potentially adding another cheap supply channel.
Can existing stockpiles hold out?
After Beijing authorized draws on strategic reserves in April, inventories have been falling. Kpler estimates China's combined commercial and strategic petroleum reserves at roughly 1.2 billion barrels.
Since early May, stocks have been draining at ~585,000 bpd; Energy Aspects puts the June draw at over 1 million bpd.
This reflects a deliberate choice: China drew down reserves rather than buy at peak prices. The cushion is narrowing, and restocking pressure is building.
Why not restock immediately at scale?
Kpler senior crude analyst Viktor Katona noted that restocking pace depends heavily on Middle East developments — whether the ceasefire holds and whether Strait of Hormuz traffic recovers further.
Columbia University scholar Erica Downs cautioned: "China needs to replenish reserves, but with its current stockpile size, it has ample time to wait for the right price."
Brent crude approached $80 per barrel on Monday — down from wartime highs but still in a range that makes Beijing hesitate to buy big. Put simply = oil isn't cheap enough yet; Beijing is still waiting.
How far apart are the forecasts?
Horizon Insights: restocking adds 500,000 bpd.
Energy Aspects: 300,000 bpd by November, with upside; FGE NexantECA sees peak restocking at up to 800,000 bpd.
Goldman Sachs: 520,000 bpd of restocking from 2027 onward.
This means → no consensus has formed on restocking scale. Whether the Middle East ceasefire holds is the single biggest variable determining when — and how aggressively — China returns.
What does this mean for global oil markets?
The Energy Aspects team wrote on June 29: "During this crisis, China helped balance the market by compressing demand. Now all eyes are on the return of Chinese buying."
In plain terms = for months, China's reduced purchases effectively cooled the global market. Once large-scale buying resumes, the supply-demand balance will tilt again.
This signals that China is not just the largest buyer — it is the single biggest unreleased variable in today's oil market.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.