China's Four Largest Solar Giants Post Combined Q3 Loss of 4.6 Billion Yuan, Effectiveness of Anti-Involution Policies in Doubt
nashnova research
LONGi, JinkoSolar, Trina, and Tongwei posted a combined Q3 net loss of 4.63 billion yuan; the sector has bled red for three years. Citi sees margin recovery; Bloomberg Intelligence sees no real turnaround before end-2027.
How deep are the losses?
Q3 net losses: LONGi Green Energy 1.03 billion yuan, JinkoSolar 290 million yuan, Trina Solar 1.67 billion yuan, Tongwei 1.64 billion yuan — a combined 4.63 billion yuan (~$696 million).
Year-to-date losses run heavier: Tongwei leads at 6.76 billion yuan, then LONGi 4.71 billion, JinkoSolar 3.37 billion, Trina 1.94 billion.
Revenue fell across the board — JinkoSolar down 20.1% year-on-year, LONGi 13.85%, Tongwei 9.69%, Trina 3.99%.
Is the "marginal improvement" real?
LONGi, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei all narrowed losses versus Q2; Tongwei's Q3 loss shrank 38.71% quarter-on-quarter. Each credits rising shipment share of high-wattage modules — solar panels that generate more power per unit.
Citi Research reads LONGi's gross-margin improvement as a positive sign that China's "anti-involution" policy — a set of government measures to curb destructive price wars — is starting to work.
This means → losses are shrinking, but "losing less" is not "making money." All four firms were still in the red in Q3 — none turned a profit.
Why is Bloomberg Intelligence less optimistic?
Bloomberg Intelligence argues overcapacity is unresolved, module prices remain depressed, and domestic demand is contracting — no meaningful recovery before end-2027.
In plain terms = too much product, prices that won't rise, and a shrinking home market — three pressures at once. One positive data point on margins cannot reverse that.
Is China's anti-involution policy working?
BULL
Margins are improving
Citi says the policy is curbing destructive pricing; profit repair has begun.
Losses narrowing fast
Tongwei's Q3 loss shrank 38.71% quarter-on-quarter — the worst may be over.
BEAR
Overcapacity unresolved
China's solar capacity is roughly twice global demand — the core problem remains.
Demand is collapsing too
China's new solar installations fell 54% year-on-year in the first three quarters.
Recovery is distant
Bloomberg Intelligence sees no real turnaround before end-2027.
In plain terms = Citi is reading a short-term signal — margins are improving. Bloomberg Intelligence is reading a structural one — too much capacity, too little demand. They are not looking at the same time horizon.
How far have layoffs gone — and do they help?
LONGi, JinkoSolar, Trina, Tongwei, and JA Solar had roughly 150,000 employees at end-2025 — about 40,000 fewer than a year earlier. In 2024 the five had already cut roughly 87,000 — two-year cuts approach half of the prior headcount.
Jefferies analysts warn that layoffs lower costs but cannot fix the fundamental problem: firms are selling product below production cost.
This means → the crisis has moved beyond "cut spending and survive." It points to a structural mismatch among capacity, pricing, and demand.
How severe is the supply-demand imbalance?
Supply side: as of August 2026, China's polysilicon inventory hit a record 600,000 tonnes — enough to feed global wafer production for more than six months.
Demand side: China's new solar installations fell 54% year-on-year through Q3. BloombergNEF cut its 2026 global new-installation forecast from 624 GW to 585 GW and expects 2027 to also undershoot prior estimates.
This reflects a hard reality: the anti-involution policy has not yet driven meaningful capacity exit — when and how the sector recovers remains the biggest open question.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。