China's June Exports Expected to Rise 18.2%, Supported by AI Demand
Claire Weston
A Reuters poll of 20 economists forecasts China's June exports up 18.2% year-on-year, easing from May's 19.4% but still elevated; the growth engine has shifted from traditional goods to AI-linked tech — a structural change in what is actually driving the headline number.
What is holding up 18.2% growth?
Two forces underpin exports: global AI infrastructure spending and US retailers front-loading orders ahead of possible new tariffs.
Automated data-processing equipment (servers, AI compute hardware) surged 60% year-on-year in May — the single largest contributor to the headline figure.
US retailers pulled orders forward by four to six weeks, shifting Christmas and Black Friday demand into summer. This means → that slice of growth is effectively borrowed, and orders may dip later this year.
Furniture up 2%, servers up 60% — what does the mix reveal?
May furniture exports rose just 1.9% year-on-year, while AI-related tech shipments jumped 60% — a stark gap.
In plain terms = China's export growth is riding almost entirely on one leg — AI — while traditional categories are nearly flat.
This reflects a global demand picture that has not broadly recovered; the AI capex cycle is propping up the tech column alone.
Imports up 24% — is domestic demand actually improving?
June imports are forecast at 24% year-on-year, down from May's 27.4%.
South Korean export data — widely used as a leading indicator for Chinese imports — shows the increase is concentrated in semiconductors and tech components, not consumer goods.
This means → import growth signals tech-supply-chain restocking, not a genuine pickup in household spending.
Why do forecasters disagree by 8 percentage points?
BNP Paribas and Mizuho Securities project 20% export growth, extending the strong first-half trend.
Industrial Securities and Shanghai Securities sit at the low end with 12%, flagging doubts about sustained external demand.
In plain terms = the bulls are betting AI demand has more runway; the bears think the front-loading effect is fading. The split boils down to how long this demand wave can last.
What matters for the second half?
The trade surplus is expected to widen from $105.43 billion in May to $120.6 billion — near-term numbers still look strong.
China releases Q2 GDP on Wednesday; the government's full-year growth target is 4.5%–5%.
This means → two tests define the second half: whether exports can keep compensating for weak domestic demand, and whether the AI capex cycle cools. If either leg buckles, pressure on the full-year target becomes visible.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.