China's May Aluminum Exports Surge 16%, Filling Global Supply Gap Triggered by Middle East War
Alina Collins
China's aluminum exports jumped 16% year-on-year to 630,000 tonnes in May as the Middle East war knocked out rival supply; yet the same conflict slashed crude imports 29%, squeezing industrial demand across the board.
Why did aluminum exports spike?
The war damaged export facilities in key Middle Eastern aluminum-producing regions and disrupted Persian Gulf shipping, opening a gap in global supply.
Chinese smelters ramped output to maximum capacity to capture international market share. May aluminum exports rose 16% year-on-year to 630,000 tonnes.
This means → aluminum has become the clearest structural beneficiary in China's commodity trade since the war began — a supply void elsewhere converted directly into Chinese export volume.
Why were energy imports hit so hard?
May crude oil imports plunged 29% to 33.1 million tonnes, the lowest since February 2018. Disrupted Persian Gulf shipping cut off China's access to the region's oil and gas.
Refiners chose to cut fuel output rather than chase alternative cargoes. Product-oil exports fell 24% to 3.37 million tonnes, though they edged up from April — Beijing has allowed some exports to ease shortages in neighboring countries.
Natural gas imports held flat at 10.1 million tonnes. LNG — liquefied natural gas, chilled into liquid form for tanker transport — buyers are actively seeking suppliers beyond Qatar ahead of the summer demand peak.
Coal imports dropped 7.7% year-on-year to 33.3 million tonnes on ample domestic stockpiles, but fallout from the Shanxi mine accident may shift this picture in coming months.
How is war-driven inflation squeezing other exports?
The Strait of Hormuz — the maritime chokepoint through which roughly a third of global oil and large volumes of fertilizer transit — is also a critical fertilizer-shipping node. China tightened fertilizer export controls; May shipments fell 5.5% to 2.97 million tonnes.
Steel exports narrowed 2.2% to 10.3 million tonnes. Mysteel's analysis attributes the pullback to war-driven inflation making overseas buyers more cautious.
In plain terms = the war has pushed up global costs, and foreign buyers are holding back on orders — Chinese steel and fertilizer exports are contracting as a result.
What about commodities less affected by the war?
Copper metal imports rose 4.4%, covering a domestic output gap caused by seasonal smelter maintenance. Copper ore imports dipped 1.4%.
Iron ore imports edged down 0.4% — a negligible move.
Soybean imports fell 15% year-on-year but rebounded sharply from April as more U.S. cargoes cleared customs after the trade truce, with Brazilian supply arriving in parallel.
Can this pattern hold?
The war is generating two opposing forces at once: it opens an international-market window for aluminum smelters while squeezing overall industrial demand through energy-supply contraction and inflation pass-through.
This means → the "window dividend" in aluminum exports and the "supply black hole" in energy imports stem from the same cause — one waxes as the other wanes.
This reflects an unstable equilibrium of war dividends and war costs in China's commodity trade — whether these two forces can stay balanced over a longer horizon is the key variable for the trade outlook ahead.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.