China's May Gold Imports Rise to Two-Year High as Hong Kong Gold Bar Imports Surge
Taylor Wilson
China imported roughly 163 tonnes of gold in May — the most since March 2024 — lifting the January-to-May total to 692 tonnes, up 76% year-on-year. Yet Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals sank to a pandemic-era low, raising a pointed question: where is all that gold actually going?
163 tonnes in one month — who is buying, and why the rush?
May imports hit roughly 163 tonnes; the five-month total reached about 692 tonnes, up around 76% year-on-year.
Song Jiangzhen of the Guangzhou-based Southern Gold Market Research Institute points to two drivers: physical bar demand and gold-accumulation plans — low-threshold financial products that let retail investors buy gold in small, regular instalments.
A short-term kicker: China's new gold-import licensing regime took effect June 1. Some banks front-loaded their remaining quotas before the changeover. This means → part of the May surge is a "use it or lose it" pulse, not necessarily a sustainable pace.
163 tonnes imported, only 63 tonnes withdrawn — where did the gap go?
Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals in May totalled just 63.5 tonnes — the lowest since February 2020, when Covid first hit.
In plain terms = gold cleared customs but did not show up in equivalent volumes at the exchange's physical delivery window. Nearly 100 tonnes are unaccounted for.
This reflects the central puzzle in China's gold market right now: after import, does the metal sit in bank vaults, back financial products as collateral, or move through off-exchange channels? The market has no clear answer yet.
The central bank is buying — but nowhere near enough to explain the imports?
The People's Bank of China added roughly 9.95 tonnes in May, its 19th consecutive month of accumulation, lifting total reserves to about 2,331.52 tonnes.
Goldman Sachs' tracker estimated PBOC purchases at 24 tonnes in April — roughly one-fifth of the concurrent import pace. This means → central-bank buying explains only a fraction of the inflow; commercial demand and financial products absorb the bulk.
Goldman forecasts global central banks will buy an average of 50 tonnes per month in 2026, tapering to 40 tonnes in 2027. A World Gold Council survey found a record 45% of the 76 central banks polled plan to add gold reserves over the next twelve months.
ETFs are bleeding cash — is retail conviction cracking?
As of June 3, China's 14 gold ETFs recorded combined net outflows exceeding RMB 10 billion (roughly $1.48 billion) over the previous month.
The once-popular "buy the dip" thesis is splintering under current volatility. This means → retail-level gold conviction is not monolithic; the sustained pullback is eroding the "always buy when it falls" consensus.
Gold has retreated about one-quarter from its January record high, pressured by emerging-market selling — notably Turkey's heavy liquidation in the early stage of the Iran conflict — and a stronger dollar fuelled by Middle East tensions.
Three numbers that don't add up — what does this mean for gold prices?
The core tension reduces to a three-way gap: monthly imports (~163 tonnes) far exceed central-bank purchases (~10–24 tonnes/month), which in turn far exceed exchange withdrawals (63.5 tonnes/month).
In plain terms = if this gold is settling into bank and product-level inventories, it forms a hidden "gold reservoir" — one that could support prices going forward, or flood the market if released at a single point.
Until this gap is explained, the true supply-and-demand picture inside the world's largest physical gold buyer remains blurred. This reflects a bigger signal: capital flows within China's gold ecosystem are shifting structurally, and the market hasn't fully decoded the change.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.