China's Seaborne Crude Oil Imports Plunge to Nearly a Decade Low in May
Claire Weston
China's seaborne crude imports fell to 6.36 million b/d in May — the lowest in nearly a decade. This is not a diplomatic signal; it is refiners' instinctive response to soaring prices.
How low is 6.36 million barrels a day?
May imports hit 6.36 million b/d, down sharply from April's 8.10 million b/d and less than half of February's 11.39 million b/d.
This means → in three months China cut daily purchases by more than 5 million barrels, far beyond normal swings.
For context: after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the biggest single-month swing was about 2 million b/d. This round's 5.5 million b/d drop is nearly three times that.
Why did China suddenly stop buying?
The driver is economics, not geopolitics — Iran's war effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, removing over 10 million b/d from global supply and sending prices sharply higher.
In plain terms = oil got too expensive, so Chinese refiners did what they always do — cut purchases and wait for prices to cool.
This reflects a consistent pattern: as the world's largest crude buyer, China's first response to a price shock is always "buy less, ride it out."
Which supply sources shrank the most?
The Middle East took the biggest hit. Iraqi imports collapsed from 790,000 b/d in February to just 60,000 b/d in May. Kuwait fell from a high of 522,000 b/d last October to zero.
Russian arrivals dropped to 1.07 million b/d, down nearly half from February's 1.96 million b/d — the lowest since last August.
This means → China's main traditional sources — the Middle East and Russia — contracted simultaneously, with no single route able to fill the gap.
Is India taking China's Russian oil?
Washington eased sanctions on Russian crude to offset the supply hole from the Iran war. India moved in fast — its Russian oil imports hit a record 2.17 million b/d in May, roughly double the February level.
In plain terms = China is buying less, India is buying more, and Russian crude flows are visibly splitting between the two.
What is keeping refiners running right now?
Chinese refiners are drawing down commercial inventories and reshuffling output to prioritize diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline — the mid-distillates that matter most domestically.
Petrochemical light-fraction output is being squeezed; plastics producers may have to tap their own stocks to stay operational.
Refined-product exports have also been cut: from 777,000 b/d in February to 463,000 b/d in May, redirecting barrels to the domestic market.
What comes next?
Commercial stockpiles cannot sustain this indefinitely. China ultimately faces three options: resume buying at higher prices, slash refinery throughput sharply, or tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserve — SPR, the government's emergency crude stockpile.
There is no sign yet that China has begun releasing SPR barrels.
This means → if prices do not retreat, China must either pay up or cut production — and either path would ripple through downstream chemicals and fuel supply.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.