China's September Crude Oil Inventories Post Record Decline; Daily Imports Edge Up Month-over-Month
nashnova research
China's onshore crude inventories fell by 57 million barrels in September — the largest single-month draw on record; refineries ramped up runs while Middle East shipping delays choked inbound cargoes, and the path to restocking in Q4 faces structural constraints.
How large was the inventory draw?
Vortexa pegged the September drop at 57 million barrels; Kpler's figure was 47.5 million barrels.
Both firms confirmed this is the largest single-month draw in their respective data series — Vortexa's starts in 2019, Kpler's in 2017.
This means → regardless of which dataset you use, September's destocking far exceeded any historical norm, sharply thinning China's crude buffer.
What caused the sudden plunge?
Two forces hit at once: higher refinery throughput + mass cargo delays.
Refinery utilization rose to 66.36% in September, up 1.98 percentage points from August — refineries were burning crude faster.
At the same time, ship-to-ship transfers — mid-sea cargo swaps between tankers — near the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted, delaying cargoes originally due in late August and September. In plain terms = refineries sped up consumption while fresh supply stalled at sea, forcing them to drain their own tanks.
Are imports recovering?
September crude imports totaled 37.1 million tonnes, or 9.03 million barrels per day — up 1.1% month-on-month but still down 21.5% year-on-year.
Seaborne crude imports averaged just 7.6 million bpd, far below the 9.9 million bpd logged a year earlier; Iranian crude imports fell to 500,000 bpd.
For the first three quarters combined, daily imports averaged 9.57 million bpd, down 15.3% year-on-year. This means → the month-on-month uptick is marginal; the broader import picture remains one of deep contraction.
What about refined products and natural gas?
September diesel and gasoline inventories both fell to their lowest levels in over a decade; rising export demand helped underpin refinery runs.
Refined-product exports hit 7.16 million tonnes in September; the January–September total was 41.4 million tonnes, down 3.7% year-on-year.
Natural gas imports (LNG + pipeline) came in at 10.86 million tonnes in September, down 1.7% year-on-year; the nine-month total was 89.23 million tonnes, down 3.9%.
Can Q4 refill the tanks?
Kpler projects Q4 seaborne crude imports at 8.0–8.5 million bpd — a modest rebound from September but still constrained.
Saudi shipments to China are expected to "increase significantly" in October and November, partly offsetting lost Iranian supply — but Kpler analyst Xu Muyu warned: fully replacing Iranian barrels will be difficult, and the recovery may be slow.
This reflects two highly uncertain variables hanging over Q4 restocking: the trajectory of Middle East geopolitics and the pace at which alternative supply actually lands. In plain terms = the tanks are near the bottom, but how fast — and how much — new crude arrives is anyone's guess.
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