China's U.S. Agricultural Purchases Fall Behind $17 Billion Commitment
nashnova research
In the first nine months of this year, China bought just $7.2 billion in non-soybean US farm goods — the lowest for that period since the 2019 trade war. This means → the $17 billion annual pledge announced by the White House is nearly half-unfilled, and closing the gap is now a political question, not a market one.
A $17 billion promise versus a $7.2 billion reality — how wide is the gap?
In May the White House announced Beijing would buy $17 billion a year in US farm products starting 2026, with this year prorated.
Reuters' analysis of Chinese customs data shows January-to-September non-soybean purchases totaled just $7.2 billion — the lowest since 2019.
Soybean purchases are roughly on track. Meat, corn, and sorghum are at seven-year lows for the period, putting the overall target under severe pressure.
Why are corn and sorghum stalling?
Corn: at the 2021 peak China imported roughly 20 million tonnes of US corn worth $5.6 billion. COFCO Futures projects 2026/27 exports to China at just ~900,000 tonnes. In plain terms = China has enough domestic grain, and US corn is no longer price-competitive.
Sorghum: Brazil gained China-export clearance in September 2025 and has already shipped about 1.7 million tonnes, with another ~1 million tonnes pending. This means → Brazil is taking share, and US sorghum sales to China have slowed sharply over the past four months.
US sorghum exports to China through August totaled roughly 3.7 million tonnes — above the lows during bilateral tensions, but momentum has peaked.
What is blocking meat exports?
China has a domestic surplus of pork and chicken, so import demand is inherently weak.
US beef prices are elevated because of declining herd size, eroding price competitiveness.
In May, China renewed export licenses for over 400 US beef-processing plants — yet roughly half of US fed-cattle slaughter capacity remains shut out of the Chinese market over residue-testing and other regulatory issues. In plain terms = the permits were signed, but the door only opened halfway.
Can the target be met by markets alone — or does it need state orders?
Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting, a China agriculture research firm, said: "Reaching $17 billion on non-soybean items requires directed, non-market purchases."
This means → market supply and demand alone cannot close the gap. Whether Beijing mobilizes state-owned enterprises for targeted buying is the decisive variable.
The start date for the pledge remains unclear — the White House has not specified whether the clock runs from the May announcement or from when China's proposed tariff cuts take effect, and those cuts are still not finalized. This reflects both sides leaving room to argue whether a breach has occurred.
How do US farmers see it?
Tim Lust, CEO of the National Sorghum Producers, said: "Our growers are patriots, but their bins are full and they desperately want to see trade moving. Soybeans are trading; other commodities are not."
The reality on the ground: full grain bins, stalled exports.
Whether the $17 billion target is met this year will ultimately be a political question, not a market one.
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