Chip Stocks Post Record 8-Day Losing Streak Not Seen in a Decade as Bond Safe-Haven Buying Overshadows Inflation Signals
nashnova research
The SOXX semiconductor ETF fell for an eighth straight day — the longest streak since 2015 — while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 5.1% despite hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI. The market's verdict: fear of an AI capex cool-down now outweighs inflation.
Inflation beat expectations — so why did bond yields fall?
September CPI and PPI both came in above forecast, yet the 10-year yield dropped more than 10 basis points to a three-week low of 5.081%.
This means → the market believes the main force pushing long-end rates higher was not inflation but the enormous financing demand from AI infrastructure buildout — and that force is now fading.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF rallied roughly 1.55% on the day, its best single-session gain since 2024. The haven bid is unmistakable.
Eight straight days of chip-stock losses — even TSMC earnings couldn't stop it?
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell for the eighth consecutive session, down about 2.2%, marking its longest losing streak since 2015.
TSMC reported a sharp jump in quarterly profit, yet its shares still slid roughly 2.3%. In plain terms = one company's strong numbers cannot offset a sector-wide panic that AI investment is cooling.
AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave continued to slide after a 15% plunge the prior session; its corporate bond yields surged. Anthropic's disclosure of slowing revenue growth compounded the sell-off.
Where did the money go?
The Dow rose 434 points (+0.8%), the S&P 500 was roughly flat, and the Nasdaq fell about 0.5% — a rare three-way divergence.
The S&P 500 equal-weight ETF (RSP) gained about 1%. This means → capital didn't leave the market; it rotated out of tech and AI names into healthcare, materials, and consumer staples.
In plain terms = "The market isn't falling — it's changing seats." Money moved from the high-risk AI narrative to steadier ground.
What do the institutions say — temporary blip or macro turning point?
TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins said: "If the AI boom really is ending, the entire 2027 macro outlook has fundamentally shifted." He added the call "seems premature."
Goldman Sachs upgraded bonds from neutral to overweight, citing cracks in credit markets and improved investor positioning as reasons to back Treasuries.
Morgan Stanley advised waiting until after this month's FOMC meeting and the midterm elections before adding duration — a more cautious stance.
What is the key unresolved question?
Peachtree Creek Investments founder Conor Sen called the bond rally "an intellectually devastating blow to the Fed hawks and tech bulls."
This reflects a growing market consensus: the upward pressure on long-end yields was rooted in AI mega-capex financing demand, not a traditional overheating economy.
The real question: is the AI capex slowdown a fleeting sentiment shock, or a structural shift large enough to rewrite the macro path? That answer will determine whether the Treasury haven bid lasts — and when chip stocks finally find a floor.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。