CICC: Global Central Bank Gold Purchases Slow, Real Interest Rates May Have Greater Impact on Gold Prices
Miles Bennett
A new CICC research note says global central-bank gold purchases are clearly decelerating, weakening the structural force that kept gold detached from real interest rates — real rates may once again dominate gold pricing.
How much has central-bank buying actually slowed?
World Gold Council data show central banks bought 244 tonnes in Q1 2026, roughly flat with 237 tonnes a year earlier.
But compared with 313 tonnes in Q1 2024 and 290 tonnes in Q1 2023, the downtrend is unmistakable.
This means → the "big buyer" force is retreating from its peak, removing a key pillar under gold prices.
Who is buying and who is selling?
From January to April 2026, the largest seller was Turkey (78.3 tonnes), followed by Russia (28.0 tonnes) and Azerbaijan (21.9 tonnes).
The top buyers were Poland (45.4 tonnes), Uzbekistan (23.9 tonnes), and China (15.2 tonnes).
In plain terms = central banks are no longer marching in step — the field has split into profit-takers and late accumulators.
Why did Turkey and Azerbaijan sell so aggressively?
By end-2025, gold made up 54.6% of Turkey's foreign-exchange reserves — a severe overweight. After the 2026 Middle East conflict tightened dollar liquidity, Turkey sold gold sitting on large paper gains to defend the lira.
Azerbaijan's state oil fund has a 35% gold-allocation cap. Rising prices pushed the ratio to 38.2%, forcing a trim back to 35.6%.
This reflects a broader pattern: some emerging-market central banks have exceeded the optimal allocation suggested by a 2020 BIS theoretical study, leaving little room to keep adding.
Why are real rates influencing gold again?
The real interest rate — the return after inflation — is the opportunity cost of holding gold. The higher it is, the more expensive it becomes to own an asset that pays no yield.
Historically, gold and real rates are negatively correlated. Between 2022 and 2025 that link broke: central-bank buying was insensitive to rates and provided independent demand support.
With that buying now slowing, the negative correlation has re-emerged. This means → once the "buy regardless of rates" force fades, rates reclaim their role as gold's pricing anchor.
What does the recent price action confirm?
Rising oil prices pushed the U.S. real rate from 1.48% in March to 1.63% in May.
Over the same period, international gold fell from roughly $5,200/oz in late February to about $4,400/oz in late May — a decline of around 15%.
CICC flagged as early as March that investors should "not overestimate central banks' appetite for gold." Recent price action tracks that call closely.
In plain terms = whether real rates continue to climb is now the key variable for gold's medium-term direction.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.