CICC Liu Gang: Maintains Hang Seng Index Center at 26,000; Tech Index Offers Odds Value but Upside Constrained by Fundamentals
nashnova research
CICC strategist Liu Gang reiterates a 26,000-point fair value for the Hang Seng Index, arguing the broad China-HK market will track mainland credit cycles sideways; Hang Seng Tech is cheap enough to limit downside, but turning into a "good trade" still requires earnings, policy, and AI capex to align.
Why is the HSI "locked" around 26,000?
Liu Gang's core framework: China-HK broad indices roughly track the mainland credit cycle — how aggressively banks lend and corporates borrow.
CICC expects the credit cycle to stay range-bound, with no major expansion. This means → the HSI's upside is capped, with its center of gravity pinned at roughly 26,000 points.
In plain terms = if credit doesn't expand, the market can't stage a systematic rally — the index will likely oscillate around current levels.
Hang Seng Tech — what separates a "not-bad trade" from a "good trade"?
Liu Gang calls the current setup "not a bad trade": valuations have compressed to low levels, limiting further sharp downside and offering odds value.
To upgrade to a "good trade," three conditions must be met simultaneously: ① a material improvement in corporate earnings ② policy pivoting toward consumer stimulus ③ internet giants ramping up AI investment.
Additionally, a rapid decline in U.S. Treasury yields would lower overall funding costs and support the tech index. This means → cheap valuation alone isn't enough — fundamentals have to genuinely improve.
Why do long-horizon and short-horizon funds view Hang Seng Tech differently?
For long-duration capital with low cost-of-carry — such as insurance funds — Liu Gang sees a case for gradually building positions in the tech index and waiting for returns to materialize.
But for mutual funds chasing relative performance, even a flat tech index carries opportunity cost — the same capital deployed elsewhere might generate better returns.
In plain terms = deep-pocketed, patient money can start buying now; money that must beat peers each quarter needs more than "not losing."
HK tech giants are investing in AI — why are they still lagging global peers?
Liu Gang breaks the underperformance into two layers. First, global hyperscalers — Microsoft, Amazon, Google and their peers that sell cloud and build AI infrastructure — have performed only modestly of late; the recent U.S. AI rally has been concentrated in hardware stocks.
Second, drawing on the U.S. experience, AI's commercial edge lies in B2B (business-to-business); HK-listed internet giants are mostly positioned in B2C (business-to-consumer) AI applications, a longer path to monetization.
The lingering overhang of the food-delivery price war adds further drag. This reflects a gap between narrative and reality: HK tech's AI story is loud, but capital favors the certainty of hardware and B2B.
What is the real "verification checkpoint" for Hang Seng Tech?
Liu Gang is explicit: whether the tech index can upgrade from "odds value" to a "good trade" ultimately depends on whether corporate earnings show material improvement.
That checkpoint has not arrived — the market is still waiting for data, not reacting to a confirmed inflection.
In plain terms = cheap doesn't mean it will rise. Companies need to actually earn more before the valuation shifts from "won't lose" to "will make money."
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。