Citadel Securities: AI Chip Financing Debt Could Exceed $500 Billion by 2028
Miles Bennett
Citadel Securities forecasts over $500 billion in new debt by 2028 to finance AI chips — exceeding 5% of the Bloomberg U.S. investment-grade index — a wave that could fundamentally reshape credit-market composition.
$500 billion in chip debt — where does it come from, and who borrows?
Jeff Eason, Citadel Securities' head investment-grade analyst, projects that public and private markets will issue over $500 billion in new debt by 2028, specifically to finance chips inside AI data centers.
This means → chips are no longer just equipment you buy; they are becoming a financeable asset class — held through debt the way airlines finance planes.
Eason calls the forecast "potentially conservative." Chip makers alone could issue over $250 billion in 2028 in a single year.
Why three-to-five-year maturities?
Most issuance will likely come as three-to-five-year bonds, with some placed as 144A private deals — debt sold only to institutional investors, not on the open market.
In plain terms = chips go obsolete in a few years, so the debt's lifespan must match the chip's useful life — borrow for five years, depreciate over five years, pay it off when the chip is retired.
For reference, U.S. markets have absorbed roughly $60 billion in similar short-dated AI debt since last year — a fraction of what Eason projects.
What real deals have already landed?
Global markets have digested roughly $570 billion in AI-related debt so far, most issued by hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
Earlier this year Anthropic closed a roughly $35 billion financing arrangement to buy Google's custom TPU chips — a processor Google designed specifically for AI workloads — making it one of the largest private-credit deals in history.
Broadcom guaranteed the senior tranche, allowing Wall Street banks to participate. This reflects chip financing crossing over from a tech-internal transaction into a mainstream financial product.
How could this reshape credit markets?
Eason's team argues the flood of chip-financing debt could fundamentally change the composition of investment-grade credit, creating an entirely new benchmark sector.
This means → investors may need to trim holdings in tech, media, and telecom to make room for chip-financing paper — in effect, legacy sectors get crowded out.
In Eason's words: "It could fundamentally alter IG market composition while reshaping spreads, portfolio construction, and capital allocation across the AI ecosystem."
How much skin does Citadel Securities have in this game?
Citadel Securities entered the investment-grade credit business in early 2024. Sam Berberian, global head of credit trading, said the firm traded roughly $500 billion in notional volume last year.
In plain terms = the firm publishing this forecast is itself a major player in the market it describes — both analyst and participant.
Whether chip-financing debt materializes at this scale will be the key test of the projection.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.