Citi: Copper Average Price Target at $14,500 for Q4 2026, Hitting $15,000 Within One Year
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Citi targets a Q4 2026 copper average of $14,500/t and sees $15,000 within a year — tariff-premium digestion and noisy demand data weigh in the short term, but a 400,000-tonne supply deficit in 2027 sets the structural bull case for H2 pricing.
Why can't copper rally right now?
The tail risk from U.S. Section 232 copper tariffs is fading — the June 30 review deadline passed with no new tariff announcement, and the COMEX-over-LME premium still faces downward pressure.
Gold and precious-metals momentum is soft, dragging broader commodity risk appetite. This means → copper, the metal with the strongest risk-asset character, gets caught in the downdraft.
Citi expects copper to struggle through July–August but regain upward momentum from September onward.
What is happening on the supply side?
Scrap is tight: through May, China's copper-scrap imports were roughly flat year-on-year — even though copper prices were well above last year's levels. In plain terms = higher prices failed to draw out more scrap, signaling genuine global scrap tightness.
Mine supply growth is near zero: Citi sees the 2026 market roughly balanced, but 2027 supply growth at only half the long-run trend — opening a gap of roughly 400,000 tonnes.
This reflects a structural bottleneck: mine capex-cycle lags, not a temporary disruption.
Why do the demand numbers look so bad?
Citi's global copper end-use tracker shows implied May consumption down about 10% year-on-year — but that figure is heavily distorted by China's renewable-energy base effect.
The key comparison: China added about 8.7 GW of solar in May, versus roughly 93 GW in May 2025. In plain terms = last year's figure was an extreme spike; a normal level looks like a "crash" next to it.
Strip out renewables, and global copper consumption grew about 1% year-on-year; China's adjusted figure grew about 0.6% — demand has not actually collapsed.
How is China's EV sector really consuming copper?
Wholesale volumes are up about 2% year-to-date, retail is down about 15%, but exports surged roughly 115% year-on-year.
This means → the export channel is offsetting much of the domestic weakness; NEV-linked copper consumption still posted about 17% year-on-year growth in May.
In plain terms = domestic sales are sluggish, but overseas shipments are booming — and copper consumption is still rising.
How did AI capex become a copper story?
Citi notes that AI-related capital spending is driving demand for power-infrastructure equipment — switchgear (devices that control electrical circuits) and transformers are both copper-intensive products.
Solar, wind, and energy-storage installations outside China also continue to add incremental demand.
This means → these metal-intensive demand streams may not be fully captured by existing trackers, and actual copper consumption resilience may be higher than the headline data suggest.
What is the key test for copper in H2?
June global manufacturing PMIs remain in expansion territory: China at 50.3, Europe expanding for a fifth straight month, and the U.S. showing moderate growth.
Citi's Q4 average target is $14,500/t; the one-year target is $15,000/t.
The pivotal question: whether the market begins to price in the 2027 400,000-tonne structural supply deficit before Q4 — that is the make-or-break catalyst for the rally timeline.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.