Citi Estimates Nvidia's Q1 Revenue to Reach $80 Billion, Above Market Consensus by About $1.4 Billion

In Citi's Tuesday investor report, it is expected that NVIDIA's revenue for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2027 will reach about 80 billion US dollars, higher than the market consensus of 78.6 billion US dollars.Seeking Alpha compiled consensus expectations of revenue at 78.89 billion US dollars, with adjusted earnings per share at 1.77 US dollars.

The core basis for the revision is the volume increase of B300. B300 is NVIDIA's top AI graphics card for data centers, part of the Blackwell product line, mainly serving AI training and inference demand, thus its ramp-up speed directly determines whether the data center business can continue to exceed market models.

Citi believes that the demand and delivery pace for B300 are stronger than previously expected, sufficient to support NVIDIA's Q1 revenue to exceed the consensus. The bank also predicts that with B300 continuing to climb, NVIDIA's sales in the July quarter will increase by 11% quarter-on-quarter to 89 billion US dollars, higher than the market consensus of 87 billion US dollars.

NVIDIA has repeatedly given similar expectations in the past few quarters. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, revenue was 1.9 billion US dollars higher than the consensus, and in the third quarter, it was over 2 billion US dollars higher.In the past 12 quarters, there have only been 3 instances where it has not exceeded the consensus by more than 1 billion US dollars.

Citi also raised its GPU shipment assumptions,increased the GPU shipment forecast from 10.6 million units to 11.2 million units, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 58%, and increased the fiscal year 2027 Blackwell shipment forecast by 9% to 7.3 million units, still mainly due to the continued volume increase of B300.

In terms of revenue structure, Citi estimates that AI GPUs will contribute an average of 70% to 80% of NVIDIA's data center sales during fiscal years 2026 to 2027, with the remaining revenue mainly from networking, discrete CPUs, and software and services.