Citi Maintains Copper Price Targets: $14,500 by September, $15,000 by Year-End
Claire Weston
Citi reaffirms its bullish copper call — $14,500/t in three months, $15,000/t by year-end — arguing the tightness is not a demand surge but a structural supply bottleneck running from mine to scrap, with global visible inventories still falling.
Why does Citi stay bullish on copper?
Citi's price path is explicit: $14,500/t within three months, $15,000/t by December.
This means → the bet is not on sudden demand but on structural supply constraints that keep tightening.
Copper demand from AI data centers, EVs, and renewables-plus-storage now outpaces actual mine-supply growth.
In plain terms = more places need copper, but mining cannot keep up — the deficit reopens after 2026.
What is China's spot market signaling?
China's refined-copper import premium has climbed to its highest since 2022; SHFE inventories sit near a five-year seasonal low.
The nearby spread has moved into steeper backwardation — a structure where near-term prices exceed forward prices, signaling scarce spot supply.
This means → China is competing for limited physical metal, and the tightness is confirmed in the data.
Copper-concentrate treatment charges (TC — the fee smelters charge to process ore) have fallen to historic lows, reflecting cut-throat competition among smelters for raw material.
U.S. stockpiles are rising — doesn't that mean copper is plentiful?
Citi addresses this directly: rising COMEX inventories do not signal global surplus.
In plain terms = it is copper relocating, not copper multiplying — tariff expectations and arbitrage have pulled metal into the U.S. ahead of schedule.
Chinese inventory drawdowns offset U.S. builds; global visible stocks are still shrinking on a net basis.
This means → looking at one region's warehouse misleads; the global ledger is what counts.
Where exactly are mines stuck?
Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and El Teniente — major projects — all faced disruptions over the past year.
The result: copper mine-supply growth stalls in 2026 and stays low in 2027.
Mature districts, especially Chile, face aging ore bodies, rising costs, and operational headwinds.
This reflects a deeper constraint: the mine-to-production cycle is long, and "just dig more" cannot close the gap in the near term.
Why can't scrap recycling fill the hole?
High copper prices have not triggered a meaningful rise in scrap supply — a counterintuitive but critical point.
In plain terms = normally, higher prices mean more recycling. But policy restrictions, rising energy costs, and a shrinking pool of scrap feedstock have cut recycling elasticity.
Mine bottleneck + scrap bottleneck = no relief on either supply dimension.
Citi sees this dual constraint as the core pillar of the bull case; geopolitical risks such as the Strait of Hormuz are, by comparison, secondary for copper pricing.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.