Citi Raises Price Targets for Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, Reiterates "Buy"
N.R. Finch
Citi raised H-share targets for both Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium while reiterating Buy, betting that lithium prices have troughed and could test RMB 250,000/tonne this year — Ganfeng on falling costs, Tianqi on pure-lithium leverage.
What are the new targets?
Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) H-share target raised from HK$66.7 to HK$78.12 — roughly 17% higher.
Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) H-share target raised from HK$61 to HK$68 — roughly 11% higher.
Both carry a reiterated Buy rating — This means → Citi sees clear upside from current levels.
Why is Citi bullish on lithium prices?
Citi says lithium and battery materials have exited their downturn since H2 2025, driven by strong demand.
The bank expects lithium prices could test RMB 250,000 per tonne this year, with the window in August–September.
In plain terms = lithium has climbed off the bottom, and Citi is betting demand keeps pushing prices one leg higher.
What is the Ganfeng thesis?
Rising average lithium prices lift margins directly, while low-cost mines such as Goulamina and Mariana ramp up, cutting unit costs.
Ganfeng's equity lithium output keeps growing over the next 2–3 years, building long-term competitiveness.
A fast-growing battery business adds further upside — Citi raised FY2026/2027 net-profit forecasts to RMB 8.457 bn and RMB 8.161 bn respectively.
What is the Tianqi thesis?
Tianqi runs a pure lithium chain — from upstream spodumene to downstream lithium carbonate — giving it maximum leverage to rising prices.
The lithium rebound already supported a meaningful earnings recovery in Q1 2026, signalling a solid full-year performance.
Citi raised Tianqi's FY2026/2027 net-profit forecasts to RMB 6.969 bn and RMB 5.269 bn respectively.
How to choose between the two? How does Citi rank them?
Citi notes Tianqi's valuation is not expensive relative to Ganfeng, making it attractive to investors in the near term.
This reflects two distinct profiles: Ganfeng leans on cost + battery diversification; Tianqi leans on pure-lithium leverage.
Citi also updated its battery value-chain preference order: lithium > cathode > cell > electrolyte > separator > battery components > anode — lithium ranks first, the clearest conviction call.
Which names are on Citi's top-pick list?
Top picks: Ganfeng Lithium, CATL (300750.SZ), Hunan Yuneng (301358.SZ), EVE Energy (300014.SZ) and CALB (03931.HK).
This means → Citi is positioned across the chain from upstream to midstream, but lithium carries the highest weighting.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.