Citi Raises Q3 2026 Brent Crude Forecast to $80/Barrel
Alina Collins
Citi lifted its Q3 2026 Brent crude average forecast from $75 to $80 per barrel, citing prolonged US-Iran talks and rising near-term supply uncertainty — but left its medium-term outlook unchanged, signaling it still expects prices to fall back.
Why did Citi raise the forecast now?
One reason: US-Iran negotiations keep dragging on with no resolution in sight.
This means → when Iranian crude returns to the market — and at what volume — remains unknown, so near-term supply risk commands a higher price.
Citi still expects a deal eventually. What changed is the risk premium inside the time window, not the long-run call.
Why was the medium-term outlook left untouched?
Citi kept its Q4 2026 Brent forecast at $70/bbl and its 2027 full-year forecast at $65/bbl.
In plain terms = Citi sees oil as "expensive now, cheaper later" — the negotiation delay is a short-term disturbance, and medium-term supply will eventually arrive, pulling prices down.
This reflects unchanged underlying confidence that a US-Iran agreement will land — Citi simply pushed the expected landing date back by roughly a quarter.
Where do Citi and Goldman disagree?
Goldman previously set a range of $80–90/bbl for Brent, holding until a nuclear deal is confirmed or a major escalation occurs.
Citi's medium-term forecasts (Q4 $70, 2027 $65) sit well below the floor of Goldman's range.
This means → both banks treat the US-Iran talks as the single biggest variable for oil prices, but they disagree sharply on how long the talks drag and how fast Iranian supply returns — Goldman worries supply stays off the market longer; Citi bets it comes back.
How did oil trade on the day?
Brent crude futures rose $1.18 (+1.4%) to $81.79/bbl; WTI rose $1.03 (+1.33%) to $78.32/bbl.
Two forces drove the move: weak US jobs data + uncertain US-Iran negotiation outlook.
In plain terms = soft employment numbers fed expectations the Fed might lean dovish, and unresolved Iranian supply risk added fuel — both pushed oil higher at the same time.
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