Citi Strongly Bullish on Lithium Carbonate, Target Price 250,000 Yuan/Ton
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Citi says lithium carbonate is severely mispriced and expects the commodity to test RMB 250,000 per tonne in August–September — a call that the battery supply chain's profit distribution is about to be reshuffled.
Why does Citi call lithium "severely mispriced"?
Citi sets a target of RMB 250,000/t for lithium carbonate, arguing the current price materially understates fair value.
The window is August–September — peak season for EV sales and pre-export stocking. Major battery makers will ramp new capacity to hit full-year output targets.
This means → Citi is not betting on a slow grind higher. It expects a concentrated move within 2–3 months, driven by seasonal demand meeting fresh capacity.
How strong is demand, really?
Per TrueLi Research, battery output in January–April 2025 rose 41% YoY to 874 GWh. Energy-storage batteries alone surged 99% to 307 GWh.
In Q1 2026, China EV battery installations grew 18% YoY to ~176 GWh. Commercial-vehicle battery installations jumped 109% to 39 GWh, lifting their share from 9% in 2024 to 22%.
In plain terms = lithium demand is shifting from a one-legged stool — passenger EVs — to three legs: passenger EVs, energy storage, and commercial vehicles.
What could disrupt the supply side?
Bearish factors: CATL's Jianxiawo mine has a formal mining permit but still awaits environmental approval — restart timing is uncertain. Australian high-cost spodumene mines are gradually restarting from H2 2026 on price incentives.
Bullish factors: Four more lepidolite mines may face the same permit-renewal process this year, creating further supply-reduction risk.
Zimbabwe resumed spodumene exports in late April 2026; cargoes should reach China by late June / early July — but exporters must pay a 10% revenue-based export duty. This means → even returning supply comes at a higher cost, which actually puts a floor under lithium prices.
Who benefits most across the battery chain?
Citi's explicit preference ranking: Lithium > Cathode > Battery > Electrolyte > Separator > Battery Structural Parts > Anode.
In plain terms = when lithium prices rise, the link closest to the mine captures the biggest gain; margins thin out the further downstream you go.
Top picks: Ganfeng Lithium, CATL, Hunan Yuneng, and EVE Energy.
Tianqi or Ganfeng — which does Citi prefer?
Near-term, Citi sees Tianqi Lithium playing catch-up, with the trading window still open.
Over a longer horizon, Citi favours Ganfeng Lithium — its equity lithium-carbonate output is growing steadily across Goulamina, Cauchari, PPG, and Mt Marion.
This reflects Citi's core logic: Tianqi has almost no volume growth over the next 2–3 years, while Ganfeng offers a "rising volume + rising price" narrative.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.