CMB Macro: June Exports Up 27%, AI Chain Price Contribution Significant
Alina Collins
China's June exports rose 27.0% year-on-year to $412.4 billion, but China Merchants Macro warns the surge is concentrated in the AI supply chain and chip price inflation — volume support is actually weakening.
How much of that 27% is just higher prices?
Integrated-circuit export value jumped roughly 122% year-on-year, yet export volume fell for the first time in over two years. This means → memory-chip price inflation is the real driver of the headline number — fewer chips were actually shipped.
Computer-equipment exports rose about 53%, another major source of the upside surprise. In plain terms = June's export figure looks strong largely because AI-related goods are "expensive and in demand," not because shipments broadly accelerated.
Auto exports hit 1.06 million units in a single month for the first time, up 71.2% — one of the few areas delivering genuine volume growth outside the tech chain.
What does global AI capex have to do with Chinese exports?
China Merchants Macro sees the core driver as continued global AI capital-expenditure expansion, lifting both demand and prices for chips, computing equipment and related components.
Offshore data confirm the trend: South Korea's June semiconductor exports surged 199.5%, with shipments to China up 92.1%; U.S. May imports of computer parts and semiconductors rose by $1.2 billion and $1.0 billion month-on-month, respectively.
This reflects a broader reality: China's export acceleration is embedded in the global AI capex cycle — it is not a China-only story.
Where are these exports going?
Exports to the U.S. grew 13.8%, sharply lower than May's 35.4%. This means → the front-loading effect — rushing goods before tariffs hit — is fading.
Exports to ASEAN rose 34.6% and to Europe 18.5%, both accelerating from May.
In plain terms = June's strength was not built on a last-minute rush to American ports. AI supply-chain demand and non-U.S. end markets carried the weight, and destination diversification is strengthening trade resilience.
Imports surged 36% — does that mean domestic demand is booming?
June imports jumped 36.0% year-on-year, but China Merchants Macro cautions: this does not prove broad-based domestic demand recovery.
Imports from South Korea and Taiwan rose 85.0% and 41.1%, driven mainly by chips, electronic components and AI-related intermediates. This reflects server and electronics manufacturing chains restocking — not a consumer-spending boom.
The counter-evidence is stark: crude-oil import volumes fell 41.3% to the lowest since October 2016; first-half commodity imports grew just 3.4%, while machinery-and-electronics imports rose 28.0% in value. In plain terms = like exports, the import surge is mostly chip-price inflation and tech restocking — traditional energy and bulk-commodity demand remains soft.
Can this pace hold into Q3?
China Merchants Macro expects the Q3 export growth center to stay in double digits, but warns that 27% in a single month should not be extrapolated.
First-half dollar-denominated exports already grew 17.6%. A full-year rate of 9% would require only about 1.1% growth in H2; 12% would need roughly 6.8%. This means → the 8%–9% base case now has a thick safety margin, and 12% is no longer a low-probability optimistic scenario — its odds have risen materially.
The key risks ahead are not an immediate collapse in global demand but the gradual onset of three constraints: chip-price normalization, front-loading fatigue, and U.S.–EU trade friction.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.