Commodity Giant Trafigura's H1 Net Profit Doubles, Warns Oil Market at "Inflection Point"
Alina Collins
Commodity trader Trafigura posted $4.1 billion in first-half net profit — its second-highest ever — while its chief economist warned that current oil prices do not reflect the true scale of the Iran-war supply shock, calling the market a 'tipping point.'
Where did $4.1 billion in profit come from?
For the half-year ending March 31, Trafigura's net profit hit $4.1 billion, more than doubling year-on-year — second only to the $5.5 billion record set in H1 2023 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
CFO Stephan Jansma noted that "a significant proportion of the profit was locked in before the Middle East conflict erupted in late February." This means → even stripping out the war windfall, the company's underlying business was already running hot.
Oil-and-gas trading volumes reached a record 8.7 million barrels per day, up 21% year-on-year. Copper tariffs boosted the metals desk, and the refining arm posted its second-strongest first quarter ever.
Oil is back below $100 — why is that more dangerous, not less?
The Iran war has knocked out roughly 14 million barrels per day of production, yet Brent crude has pulled back below $100 a barrel after its initial spike.
Chief economist Saad Rahim listed the cushions: high inventories, floating storage, coordinated SPR releases (emergency government oil reserves), seasonal demand lulls, and falling demand in Asia and Africa — "they bought time for the market, but they are not a solution."
In plain terms = prices haven't risen because supply is adequate; they haven't risen because the market is burning through its emergency buffer as if it were routine supply. Once those cushions run out, a sharp catch-up rally becomes likely.
Why is U.S. gasoline inventory the most alarming signal?
Rahim singled out U.S. gasoline inventories, which are falling at a record pace, as the most urgent warning sign.
This means → end-user stocks in the world's largest consumption market are draining fast. Once summer driving season hits, the buffer narrows further.
Even if a U.S.–Iran peace deal comes quickly, "restoring output and shipping flows to pre-conflict levels would take months, not weeks, by most estimates."
Why do commodity traders keep making record profits in wartime?
Trafigura and peers Vitol, Mercuria, and Gunvor all posted record profits during the 2022–2023 Russia-Ukraine conflict; the Iran war has created a similar setup.
Since late February the war has severely disrupted the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil flows — opening up geographic price dislocations that traders can arbitrage.
In plain terms = war scrambles the normal routes from oilfield to refinery. Different regions end up with wildly different prices, and traders profit by buying cheap in one place and selling dear in another. Venezuela operations added roughly 300,000 barrels per day in extra trading volume.
What is the biggest wildcard for the second half?
The core question: as buffers deplete, will oil prices catch up in H2 to reflect the true supply gap?
CEO Richard Holtum said "the pressures that have built up in commodity markets and global supply chains over recent months will take time to dissipate." This reflects management's expectation that market tightness persists well into the second half.
This means → if Rahim's "tipping point" call is right, oil below $100 may be the calm before the storm — and for energy-importing economies, cost pressures in the second half could rise sharply.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.