Consulting Firm: Three Major Memory Manufacturers May Significantly Raise HBM Prices in 2027
N.R. Finch
TrendForce expects Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to raise HBM prices significantly in 2027, as tight conventional DRAM supply and rising HBM manufacturing costs hand pricing power back to the chipmakers.
Why is HBM now less profitable than regular memory?
HBM — high-bandwidth memory, a vertically stacked chip designed for AI processors — is priced through annual contracts, adjusted once a year. Conventional DRAM reprices quarterly and surged in H2 2025 as supply tightened.
By Q1 2026, the per-wafer revenue from DDR5 64GB RDIMMs (standard server memory modules) had overtaken that of HBM wafers.
This means → HBM margins now trail DDR5 — the "premium product" earns less per wafer than the "commodity." The incentive to reprice has been building for months.
Where does the leverage for a 2027 price hike come from?
Supply side: HBM's share of total DRAM wafer starts will rise from 18% in 2025 to roughly 30% in 2027, yet it will account for only about 13% of total DRAM bit output — because each wafer yields fewer, larger dies.
This means → HBM consumes a disproportionate share of fab capacity while producing relatively little "volume," squeezing conventional DRAM supply even harder in 2027.
In plain terms = the factory is finite. The more lines HBM takes, the less room is left for regular memory. Both segments tighten, giving makers a clear case to raise prices.
Demand side: who keeps pushing HBM volumes higher?
2026 drivers: AI ASICs such as Google's TPU are lifting per-chip HBM capacity from 96/192 GB to 216/288 GB. NVIDIA's Rubin platform keeps per-GPU capacity flat but grows total demand through higher shipment volumes.
2027 step-up: NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra pushes single-GPU HBM capacity to 384 GB. Google TPU and other ASICs add further bit demand as chip counts rise.
This means → the "stack more capacity" trend on the demand side shows no sign of slowing. Supply and demand tighten simultaneously, giving makers clear pricing dominance in 2027 negotiations.
What does this signal for the broader market?
TrendForce expects the three makers to begin negotiating 2027 HBM4 supply terms with customers in Q2 2026, with prices set to rise substantially.
This reflects a deeper shift: HBM is no longer just a premium product — it is becoming the variable that redefines pricing across the entire DRAM industry. When HBM prices rise, conventional DRAM follows because its capacity is being crowded out.
Put simply = in the AI era, the memory market is no longer two separate lanes — "premium" and "commodity." When HBM moves, everything moves.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.