Copper Prices Shuffle Near $14,000/ton, Approaching Historical High

On Tuesday, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.6% to $14,025 per ton, just a stone's throw away from the historical high of over $14,500 set in January this year.

This surge occurred against the backdrop of Trump warning that the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is "hanging by a thread" and widespread turmoil in the financial markets, making the resilience of copper prices particularly noteworthy.

Triple support drives recent uptrend

This round of copper price increases has clear fundamental support.

Firstly, there is a warming of demand in China, the world's largest consumer of copper, whose marginal improvements directly enhance copper prices.

Secondly, the situation in the Middle East has led to disruptions in sulfur supply, threatening copper mining production processes that rely on sulfuric acid, increasing supply-side pressure.

Thirdly, the correlation between copper prices and US tech stocks continues to rise, benefiting from the energy transition demand narrative driven by AI infrastructure construction.

Citigroup previously pointed out that energy transition and AI-related copper demand currently account for about 18% of the global consumption total, and have contributed almost entirely to the increase in copper demand since the pandemic, with structural support making copper prices much more resilient to cyclical shocks than historical levels.

Geopolitical risks return to the fore, but copper prices can still digest

In the past few weeks, the bullish logic of copper prices has generally overridden concerns about the impact of a Middle Eastern war on the global industrial economy. However, as Trump publicly rejects Iran's peace proposal, geopolitical risks are heating up again and market concerns about global growth are re-emerging.

For now, the fundamental support for copper continues to dominate—but if the situation between the US and Iran deteriorates further and substantially drags down global industrial demand, the growth narrative that copper relies on will face a more direct challenge.