Copper "Sold Out" Globally, China Import Premium Hits Highest Since 2017
nashnova research
What is the Yangshan premium, and why does it matter now?
The Yangshan premium — the extra cost Chinese importers pay above the London Metal Exchange benchmark — is the most direct gauge of how tight China's copper import market is.
It surged past $200 per tonne, the highest since Fastmarkets started recording in 2017.
This means → Chinese buyers are bidding up to secure physical metal. The market's core question has shifted from "is copper expensive?" to "is copper available at all?"
How did copper become "sold out globally"?
Two forces are squeezing supply at the same time: U.S. tariff expectations have pulled large volumes of copper into America, concentrating global inventories there; meanwhile, Chinese smelters cut output as costs rose — refined copper production fell 1.1% year-on-year in Q3.
In plain terms = the U.S. is acting like a magnet pulling copper in, while China's own smelters are producing less — caught between both, available copper elsewhere is running dry.
Mysteel Global analyst Xiao Chuankang said copper is "sold out globally" and expects the premium to stay elevated.
Can Chinese demand hold up at these prices?
Despite LME copper trading near record highs — $14,472 per tonne, up 16% year-to-date — traders report no significant demand destruction in China.
This reflects rigid downstream demand: renewables, power grids, and EV supply chains still consume vast quantities of copper, leaving little room for price-driven cutbacks.
Copper hit an all-time high of $14,875 per tonne in September and remains in an elevated trading range.
When could the gap close?
More African copper may be redirected to China, but shipments are expected to take one to two months to arrive — the near-term supply gap cannot be filled quickly.
This means → the Yangshan premium will likely stay elevated over the next month or two. Whether it eases once African cargoes land will be the key signal for China's copper supply-demand rebalancing.
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