Crypto Perpetual Contracts Bet on SpaceX Valuation Reaching $2.2 Trillion
Miles Bennett
On SpaceX's IPO pricing day, perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid and Binance trade at $165 — a 22% premium to the $135 offer price — implying a $2.2 trillion valuation and a bet that the stock jumps at least 20% on day one.
What exactly is the $165 contract price betting on?
SpaceX perpetual contracts — crypto derivatives with no expiry that track a stock's price — traded at $165 Thursday morning on Hyperliquid and Binance. The IPO priced at $135.
This means → contract buyers are wagering SpaceX gains at least 20% on its first trading day. Sellers are betting the debut falls flat.
Apollo Crypto portfolio manager Pratik Kala noted the contract price "is setting a higher bar for traders looking to get in."
How big is the trading volume?
Trade.xyz data shows SpaceX perps have averaged over $26 million in daily volume since listing on May 18. The past 24 hours topped $69 million, with open interest at roughly $145 million.
Binance numbers are even larger: over $182 million traded in the past 24 hours, open interest around $184 million.
In plain terms = across the two platforms, more than $250 million changed hands in a single day — for a company that has not yet traded a single share. That signals extremely heated sentiment.
Why the sudden frenzy?
For comparison: before AI chip maker Cerebras went public, its perps on Hyperliquid averaged just $3.6 million daily. SpaceX volume is more than 7× that.
This reflects a shift after Cerebras surged 68% on its debut — confidence in crypto perps as a "price-discovery" tool rose sharply.
OKX CEO Star Xu said publicly that perpetual contracts "offer real-time, transparent, and global market expectations and price discovery."
Can you trust the contract price?
Perp holders have zero legal equity claim on the underlying company. These are pure price bets, not shares.
Funding rates, liquidity swings, settlement rules, and reference pricing can all distort contract prices. Bloomberg noted that wild swings may reflect retail leverage or contract scarcity more than intrinsic value.
In plain terms = the $400 billion gap between the $2.2 trillion implied valuation and SpaceX's $1.8 trillion IPO valuation will only be settled by the actual trading price on day one.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.