CXMT Expected to Post Over 131 Billion Yuan Net Profit in First Three Quarters, Swinging from Loss to Profit YoY
nashnova research
ChangXin Memory Technologies (长鑫科技) expects net profit of RMB 131–132.5 billion for the first three quarters, versus a RMB 5.28 billion loss a year earlier — a sign-flip that directly reflects the force of DRAM's current upcycle.
How dramatic are these numbers?
Net profit swung from a RMB 5.28 billion loss to roughly RMB 131–132.5 billion in profit. This is not percentage growth — it is a complete sign reversal.
Revenue is guided at RMB 265–270 billion, up from about RMB 32.1–37.1 billion a year ago — a more than 7× increase.
This means → CXMT went from survival mode to blockbuster earnings in a single cycle turn.
Where did the money come from?
The company cites two drivers: external demand + internal capability.
External: AI compute demand (training and running large models both consume vast amounts of memory chips) is booming. DRAM — the mainstream memory chip in servers and PCs — is in tight supply, and prices have surged.
Internal: capacity expansion, new-product R&D, process upgrades, and leaner operations all contributed.
In plain terms = the industry tailwind arrived, and CXMT's own capacity and technology were ready to catch it — volume and price rose together.
What to watch next?
The first three quarters are largely locked in. The real question mark is Q4.
If DRAM prices hold and CXMT's capacity ramp continues, full-year profit could climb further.
If AI demand growth slows or industry-wide capacity floods the market and pushes prices down, Q4 becomes the window that tests whether this upcycle's inflection point has already arrived.
This reflects a classic cyclical-stock dynamic: the brighter today's earnings, the louder the market asks "how long can this last?"
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