D-Wave Quantum to Release Earnings Tomorrow, Revenue Expected to Drop Sharply YOY

D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) will release its first-quarter financial report before the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow, followed by a conference call at 8 a.m. Eastern Time. Wall Street is expecting the company's first-quarter revenue to be around $4.19 million, a significant decrease from the $15 million in the same period last year. Last year's high revenue was mainly due to the completion of the first batch of Advantage quantum system sales to a high-performance computing center, which was a one-time contribution.

In terms of losses per share, analysts estimate that the GAAP loss will be approximately $0.08 to $0.10 per share, a significant increase from the $0.02 last year's same period. However, on a sequential basis, revenue is expected to slightly recover from the previous quarter's $2.75 million, showing some signs of repair.

The outbreak of orders is the biggest highlight of this financial report. The company revealed in the last quarter's conference call that new orders added in January 2026 alone exceeded the total of the entire year 2025. The total orders for 2025 were about $18.7 million, and the company subsequently announced more than $32.8 million in new orders, including a $20 million system sales contract with Florida Atlantic University and a two-year, $10 million quantum computing as a service agreement with a Fortune 100 company.

This January, D-Wave also completed the acquisition of Quantum Circuits, which is focused on the development of fault-tolerant superconducting gate model quantum computing systems. This move made D-Wave the world's first company to provide both annealing and gate model quantum platforms.

In terms of industry background, competitor IonQ has just announced a strong first-quarter revenue growth of 755% and has raised full-year guidance, setting a high bar for the overall quantum computing sector. The market will be closely watching whether D-Wave can make more substantial progress in the momentum of orders.

Investors need to focus on three main lines: whether orders can continue to be converted into confirmable revenue; whether cash reserves are sufficient to support ongoing R&D investment and M&A integration; and the management's stance on full-year revenue guidance. If there are more than expected revenue or orders, it will help boost market sentiment; on the contrary, if there are signs of delayed revenue recognition or accelerated cash consumption, it may suppress the stock price.

The options market shows that the implied fluctuation range around the financial report for QBTS's stock price is about 18.83%, higher than the average financial fluctuation range of 16.1% for the past four quarters, indicating that the market prices the uncertainty of this financial report at a higher level. According to Yahoo Finance data, among the 17 analysts covering QBTS, 15 maintain a buy rating with an average target price implying more than 85% upside from current prices; under TipRanks' statistics, 12 out of 13 analysts give buy ratings with an average target price of $36.91, implying about 63.5% upside from the current price of approximately $22.65.

Year to date, QBTS's stock price has cumulatively fallen by about 14%, but has rebounded by more than 55% in the past month, partly benefiting from the sector's sentiment warming driven by Nvidia's announcement of the launch of quantum technology-assisted AI tools.