Dalio: Huge Changes in the Next 5 Years, And Then the World Will Be Unrecognizable

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the United States is entering a period of "great turmoil," with a confluence of structural forces that will profoundly reshape the face of the nation and the world within the next five years.

In a podcast program with The New York Times on the 7th, Dalio said that the large fiscal deficits, the widening wealth gap, political polarization between the left and the right, the reshaping of the geopolitical landscape, and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence will collectively drive the formation of this turbulent situation.

“All of these forces coming together mean that there will be a huge change in the next five years," he said, "and after that, the world will be almost unrecognizable, with great changes, an era filled with great transformations and acute turmoil.”

For investors, Dalio advises maintaining a 5% to 15% allocation to gold in the portfolio, reasoning that historical patterns show that during similar turbulent periods, all fiat currencies depreciate while gold rises.

Political Conflicts May Intensify After Midterm Elections

Dalio expressed deep concern for the stability of the American social and political system and explicitly mentioned the potential risk of violent conflict.

He predicted that the Republican Party may lose control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, and this outcome will become a turning point for further intensification of political and social contradictions. “From then on, you will see the intensity of political and social conflicts continuously increasing, especially in the period between that election and the 2028 presidential election.”

On the international front, Dalio believes that the rules-based international order no longer exists. He describes the direction of the U.S.-Iran tensions as an "almost black-and-white" choice — the core lies in who will control the Strait of Hormuz and who will control nuclear materials. This judgment implies that geopolitical risks have evolved from a vague game to a more direct strategic confrontation.

Gold Tops the List in Turbulent Times, Diversification Is the Way

Faced with the aforementioned risks, Dalio gave clear asset allocation advice: maintain a highly diversified portfolio and keep the gold position in the range of 5% to 15%. He cited historical experience to point out that during such turbulent periods, fiat currencies invariably weaken, while gold plays the core role of value storage.

At the same time, Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management, also issued a warning, stating that the world is facing a “large-scale geopolitical reorganization,” a trend that will lead to the rise in status of the blue-collar workforce, while the white-collar group will face greater pressure. The synchronized warnings from these two industry heavyweights further highlight the market's intense focus on macroeconomic uncertainty.