DDR4 and NAND Prices Hit Multi-Year Highs as AI Capacity Competition Extends Upcycle
N.R. Finch
Benchmark DDR4 contract price rose to $24 in July while NAND broke $30 for the first time — both multi-year records driven by AI servers crowding out legacy capacity, with the up-cycle expected to run into 2027.
How steep is the rally?
The PC-grade DDR4 8Gb average contract price hit $24 in July, up 14.3% month-on-month — the highest since tracking began in June 2016.
The 128Gb MLC NAND average reached $30.05, crossing the $30 mark for the first time.
Year-to-date, DDR4 is up roughly 109% and NAND roughly 218% — a doubling or tripling in six months.
Why is SLC NAND surging even faster?
Some SLC NAND products jumped 35–51% month-on-month in July, far outpacing MLC NAND's 4–8% gains.
SLC NAND — a flash-memory chip prized for speed and durability — is widely used in automotive electronics, networking gear, and industrial controls.
This means → those sectors already carried thin inventories; once supply tightens, their price sensitivity is far greater than consumer-grade products.
What is squeezing supply so hard?
The core driver is a structural shift in capacity allocation: memory makers are prioritizing HBM (high-bandwidth memory built for AI chips), server DRAM, and advanced 3D NAND.
In plain terms = the fabs are a fixed size; AI orders carry higher margins, so production slots for conventional PC memory and legacy flash keep getting pushed back.
This reflects how AI is not only pulling its own supply chain forward but also indirectly inflating prices across all memory products by absorbing fab capacity.
How long can the rally last?
TrendForce expects DRAM supply tightness to persist into 2027, as AI-server and HBM demand continues to crowd out legacy capacity.
NAND looks slightly better: new capacity coming online could ease supply by the second half of 2027.
This means → the pricing trajectories for DRAM and NAND may diverge around 2027 — DRAM stays tight longer, while NAND peaks first.
Are there any cooling signals?
Laptop price hikes are already suppressing end-user demand, yet suppliers still hold the upper hand in contract negotiations.
Over a year of sustained price increases has visibly raised procurement costs, and downstream buyers are growing more cautious.
This reflects the cycle's key test: whether demand-side cooling can break the supply-driven pricing logic before 2027.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.