Deutsche Bank: Dollar's Safe-Haven Status Weakening as "AI Dollar" Logic Takes Shape
nashnova research
Deutsche Bank warns that roughly 90% of the $20-trillion-plus in U.S. equities held by foreigners reflects price appreciation, not fresh inflows — and if AI capex expectations reverse, the dollar's support shifts from safe-haven demand to pro-cyclical decline.
Did foreign money really "flow into" U.S. stocks?
George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank's global head of FX strategy, notes that overseas investors fund the entire U.S. current-account deficit — but their position growth comes mostly from valuation gains, not new buying.
This means → of the $20-trillion-plus in U.S. equities foreigners hold on paper, roughly 90% is unrealised appreciation, not cash that was wired in.
In plain terms = foreigners haven't been steadily adding; the stocks they already owned simply rose. A sharp sell-off would inflict losses far beyond their actual invested capital.
Why has the dollar stopped being a "safe haven"?
Over the past decade, U.S. stocks and the dollar moved inversely — when equities rose, the dollar fell. That gave foreign holders a natural currency hedge with no extra cost.
Saravelos argues that when a sell-off is driven by U.S.-specific factors, the correlation flips: the dollar falls in tandem with stocks, and the hedge breaks down entirely.
This means → foreigners face a double hit: equity losses compounded by currency losses when they convert back to home currencies.
What does a simultaneous drop in real rates and stocks signal?
Saravelos identifies a confirmation signal: if U.S. real interest rates and equities fall together, it is further evidence that the dollar's safe-haven quality is eroding.
He argues this year's parallel rise in stocks and real rates was powered by steadily strengthening AI capex expectations.
In plain terms = AI investment expectations have been propping up both rates and share prices. If those expectations are revised down, both could drop in unison — and the dollar would weaken alongside them.
What does the "AI dollar" framework actually mean?
Saravelos states it plainly in the report: "The AI dollar has arrived."
This means → the dominant force behind dollar strength has shifted from traditional safe-haven demand to capital inflows driven by AI capex expectations.
This reflects a structural change: the dollar has become a pro-cyclical currency — strong when AI expectations are strong, weak when they falter — rather than one that strengthens in a crisis because investors flee to safety.
Saravelos emphasises he is not making a call on AI's prospects. His warning is that the relationship between risk assets and the dollar has changed, and the two-way risk is "far greater than markets have priced in recent weeks."
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。