Deutsche Bank: Europe's Q2 Earnings Grew 14%, with Energy Sector Contributing 84% of the Gains
Alina Collins
Deutsche Bank expects European corporate earnings to grow 14% year-on-year in Q2, beating the 12% consensus — but strip out energy, and growth drops to roughly 3%. Almost the entire beat runs on oil.
Where does the 14% come from?
Deutsche Bank forecasts 14% year-on-year earnings growth for European corporates in Q2, above the 12% market consensus.
The bank cites "strong positive earnings revisions" and expects a "small but positive beat."
This means → analysts were already raising estimates ahead of reporting season — a modestly bullish signal.
How much is energy actually contributing?
The energy sector alone is expected to post 84% year-on-year earnings growth.
The driver: the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude to a Q2 average of $97 per barrel, up 45% year-on-year.
In plain terms = strip out energy, and Europe's overall earnings growth falls from 14% to roughly 3% — more than four-fifths of the headline number comes from oil prices.
How are the other sectors doing?
Chemicals and industrials are expected to deliver strong growth; autos may post their first positive earnings quarter since 2023.
Banking earnings growth is slowing to mid-single digits (roughly 4%–6%[unverified]), though Deutsche Bank sees a rebound in the second half.
Healthcare may decline for a third straight quarter — this reflects structural pressure, not a one-off dip.
Can this growth rate hold in the second half?
At the time of the report, Brent crude had already fallen from the Q2 average of $97 to around $73 per barrel.
This means → the drop reflects market expectations of a US–Iran ceasefire and lasting peace; energy's high-base effect is fading.
Put simply = if oil stays in the low $70s, energy cannot repeat this kind of contribution — Europe's earnings story will need other sectors to pick up the slack, or the full-year numbers will come in sharply lower.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.