Deutsche Bank Says Prediction Market Business Could Boost Robinhood, Raises Price Target to $98
Taylor Wilson
Deutsche Bank raised its Robinhood target price to $98, implying 11% upside, arguing that the launch of its joint-venture prediction market platform Rothera could unlock a new source of trading volume.
Why is Deutsche Bank upgrading now?
Deutsche Bank reiterated its "buy" rating on Robinhood and raised the target to $98, implying roughly 11% upside from Thursday's close.
The stock has fallen more than 40% from its 52-week high. Deutsche Bank sees the prediction market launch as a potential catalyst to shift sentiment.
This means → the call is not "this is the bottom" — it is "there is a new narrative here." Prediction markets give the stock a reason to re-rate.
What is Rothera, and why is the timing "strategic"?
Rothera is a prediction market platform — a venue where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes — developed as a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group.
The first contracts routed to Rothera cover World Cup and professional baseball events. Analyst Brian Bedell called the timing strategic, aligning with the World Cup cycle.
In plain terms = sports events generate natural traffic for event contracts. Launching during a major tournament is opening day with a built-in crowd.
For context: event contract volume across the market has exceeded 16 billion contracts in 2026 so far. This reflects prediction markets moving from niche to mainstream.
What does the fee advantage mean?
Rothera caps fees at 1 cent per contract, matching Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx but undercutting Kalshi's maximum of 2 cents.
This means → for active traders, saving 1 cent per contract compounds at scale — a direct tool to attract high-frequency participants.
Robinhood management has promised "equivalent monetization levels," meaning the lower fee should not erode overall profitability. Deutsche Bank raised its event contract volume forecast accordingly.
What should investors watch out for?
A Robinhood spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that this is not Rothera's formal commercial launch — only select contracts are being routed to the platform for now.
Robinhood still offers Kalshi and ForecastEx contracts alongside Rothera — all three run in parallel.
Put simply = this is a soft launch. Deutsche Bank's bullish case rests on the assumption that trading volume will ramp once the full launch happens — and that assumption is still unproven.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.