Earnings from Four Analog Chip Giants Confirm the Start of an Upcycle
Taylor Wilson
Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics, NXP and onsemi all posted year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter revenue gains in Q2; TI's CEO says a broad-based upcycle may have just started — inventory normalization, restocking and real end-demand are stacking up at once.
How did the four giants actually score?
TI posted revenue of $5.463 billion, up 23% YoY and 13% QoQ; its analog segment — nearly 80% of sales — grew 26%.
STMicro came in at $3.487 bn (+26% YoY); NXP at $3.496 bn (+19%); onsemi at $1.604 bn (+9%).
This means → all four beat on both YoY and QoQ, and Q3 guidance still points to sequential growth. The cycle trough is behind us.
Which end-markets moved first?
Industrial led the rebound: TI industrial revenue rose ~30% YoY and ~10% QoQ; NXP industrial & IoT surged 38% YoY and 20% QoQ; STMicro industrial climbed 34% YoY.
Automotive finally followed: TI auto grew by double-digit percentages, driven mainly by China's EV and hybrid demand; NXP auto was up 12% YoY.
Data center was the strongest: TI data-center revenue doubled YoY and rose ~20% QoQ; onsemi's "other" segment — including AI data centers — jumped 34% QoQ.
In plain terms = industrial is the vanguard, auto and data center are catching up, and consumer electronics remains the weak link — NXP mobile fell 10% QoQ.
Is the inventory glut actually over?
STMicro's inventory days fell from 166 to 126; distributor stock is now below the company's own target. NXP channel inventory dropped to 11 weeks, back at the long-term goal.
TI's inventory value fell by $90 million QoQ, with days down 13. CEO Haviv Ilan's read: industrial destocking is essentially done; auto inventory has dropped to levels that are hard to sustain.
This means → the analog-chip inventory cycle is crossing three nodes: destocking → normalization → new-order flow-through. The inflection point is here.
What is the order structure telling us?
STMicro CEO Jean-Marc Chery disclosed that Q2 book-to-bill exceeded 1 across every end-market, with the overall ratio near 2; communications equipment and computer peripherals ran well above 2, driven by optical-connectivity and silicon-photonics demand.
TI's backlog grew in both spot and forward orders. In plain terms = spot orders signal low inventory and urgent restocking; forward orders signal confidence in future production plans. Both rising together means the recovery has moved beyond pure channel refill.
On pricing, TI said H1 prices were roughly flat; new increases are rolling out but Q3 revenue growth will still come mostly from volume. STMicro, though seeing some tightness, still booked $37 million in idle-capacity charges in Q2.
What new runway is AI opening for analog chips?
The higher a rack's compute density, the more complex its power system — from AC/DC conversion to intermediate bus to point-of-load. Each layer needs power management, power devices, current sensing, isolation and temperature-sensing chips (all analog). This means → analog content per AI server is rising steadily.
STMicro raised its 2026 data-center revenue target to above $1 billion and projects over $2 billion in 2027. Onsemi CEO Hassane El-Khoury called AI data centers the company's fastest-growing business, guiding for more than a doubling in 2026 revenue, and disclosed a design win in Great Wall's AI data-center power platform in China.
Chinese analog-design houses are also capturing share: Novosense is shipping high-voltage GaN driver ICs at volume; Joulwatt's digital multiphase controllers and e-fuses are in mass production; 3Peak is delivering optical-module analog front-ends at scale; SG Micro's optical-module revenue is growing rapidly.
How far can this upcycle run?
WSTS's Spring 2026 forecast projects analog-chip revenue growth of roughly 10% for the full year — far below memory's ~250% surge. In plain terms = analog is in upcycle territory, but it is not the hottest segment in this semiconductor cycle.
The tightest pockets are in automotive analog, power management, AI-server power chains and optical-module analog front-ends; commodity parts and consumer electronics are still in price competition.
This reflects a clear dynamic: restocking has pushed orders off the bottom, but whether this upcycle has legs ultimately depends on whether real end-demand sustains.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.