EIA Crude Inventories Decline for Sixth Consecutive Week; U.S. Gasoline Stocks Hit 12-Year Seasonal Low
Claire Weston
US commercial crude stocks dropped 7.97 million barrels in a single week — the largest draw since February — extending the decline to six consecutive weeks, while gasoline inventories sit at their lowest seasonal level since 2014; Macquarie warns prices must reprice sharply higher if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed through Labor Day.
How big was the crude draw?
Commercial crude inventories fell 7.97 million barrels, the largest single-week drop since February and the sixth straight weekly decline.
Cushing, Oklahoma — the key WTI delivery hub — shed another 583,000 barrels, approaching "tank bottoms." This means → Cushing is nearing the physical minimum below which oil can no longer be pumped out normally, squeezing delivery capacity.
In plain terms = crude isn't just "declining" — the most critical delivery point is running close to empty.
Gasoline stocks rose — why is it still a low?
Gasoline inventories added 3.36 million barrels, the biggest weekly build since January.
Yet the current level remains the lowest for this time of year since 2014 — a 12-year seasonal low. This means → the bounce only moved stocks from "extremely low" to "very low"; the overall tight picture is unchanged.
API data largely matched: crude down 6.8 million barrels, gasoline up 3.5 million barrels, distillates down 214,000 barrels.
What is happening with strategic reserves and exports?
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR — the government's emergency oil stockpile) fell sharply again, with cumulative draws of 58 million barrels since the latest Middle East conflict began.
Crude and product exports are running near record highs, domestic rig counts keep climbing, and output is approaching its all-time peak.
This reflects a dual drain: the US is drawing down its emergency buffer while simultaneously shipping large volumes abroad — both sides of the supply ledger are consuming cushion at once.
How does Macquarie assess the Hormuz closure?
Macquarie notes the price reaction has been muted because global supply was already in surplus before the conflict, and commercial stocks were cushioned by SPR releases and product draws.
Analysts say "the market can hold for another month or two," but warn: if the strait remains shut before Labor Day (September 7), physical supply will tighten materially.
In plain terms = today's calm prices are riding on a layer of pre-war "fat" — but that fat is burning fast, and time is the enemy.
Where does the oil price go next?
Macquarie's bottom line: strait reopens soon → prices fall sharply; closure persists → stocks deplete rapidly → prices forced significantly higher.
Brent was moving back toward $100/barrel on the day; WTI traded around $95/barrel ahead of the official data release.
This means → the market's single decisive variable is the Hormuz reopening timeline. The longer the window stays shut, the greater the upward pressure on prices.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.