European Gas Prices Break Above €90 Again as Inventories Drop to 15-Year Seasonal Low
nashnova research
Dutch TTF natural gas futures broke above €90/MWh again — nearly triple last winter's level; EU storage fell to its lowest for this time of year since 2009, sharply narrowing Europe's buffer against cold snaps or supply disruptions.
What just happened to gas prices?
Dutch TTF front-month futures hit their highest since late 2022, breaking above €90/MWh this week.
That is nearly triple the level seen last winter. This means → industrial production, logistics, and household heating costs are all being pushed higher simultaneously.
In plain terms = every euro spent on gas last winter now costs close to three.
Why is storage so low?
EU gas storage is about 74% full — the lowest for this date in Bloomberg data going back to 2009, and well below the 15-year historical average.
Germany is worse off at just 61% full, leaving especially thin cushion.
This means → Europe enters peak heating season from a very low starting point; any cold snap or supply disruption leaves little room to restock.
Where is the supply pressure coming from?
The Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global LNG exports — remains under geopolitical tension, potentially capping LNG shipment volumes.
Europe must also compete with Asian buyers for limited LNG spot cargoes. This means → the bidding war itself is driving procurement costs higher.
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven warned: if Hormuz LNG flows fall to roughly one quarter of normal and severe cold boosts heating demand, prices could reach €150/MWh.
Is the weather helping or hurting?
Warmer-than-normal October temperatures have suppressed heating demand, giving utilities a narrow window to add stocks.
But forecasts show November temperatures dropping sharply; whether low demand persists is uncertain.
Some observers expect a strong El Niño could bring a milder overall winter. In plain terms = even if the season averages warm, short cold spells can still spike demand to extreme levels.
What is the worst-case scenario?
The core risk is the low storage starting point, which amplifies the probability that supply and demand move in the wrong direction at the same time.
This reflects a simple logic chain: lower stocks → smaller margin for error → any single shock has a larger price multiplier.
The key variable = whether a cold snap and an LNG supply disruption hit simultaneously — that will set the ceiling on this winter's price pressure.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。