European Jet Fuel Stocks Below 30 Days as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Risks Resurface
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European jet-fuel inventories have dropped to cover fewer than 30 days of demand — the thinnest buffer among major markets — while vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz increasingly switch off tracking systems, putting summer restocking under dual pressure.
How large is Europe's jet-fuel gap?
Energy Aspects data (June 18): Europe's Q3 jet-fuel supply deficit is projected at 600,000 barrels per day, while the U.S. and Asia-Pacific hold surpluses of 116,000 bpd and 425,000 bpd respectively. This means → global jet fuel is not short — Europe alone is.
Early-June European jet-fuel stocks stood at roughly 38 million barrels versus about 99 million barrels in the U.S. Reuters estimates European cover at under 30 days, the lowest among major markets.
The IEA's latest monthly report shows late-May European jet-fuel stocks up 10% year-on-year and refinery output up 30%, yet even those gains imply only about one month of buffer. In plain terms = the numbers look like they are rising, but consumption is rising faster — the cushion remains dangerously thin.
Where is Europe sourcing replacement supply?
Before the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, roughly half of Europe's jet-fuel imports came from the Middle East. After hostilities began, buyers pivoted to Canada, the U.S., India, Kuwait, and South Korea.
Kpler data show June European jet-fuel imports reached 673,000 bpd, the highest since October 2025. From Kuwait, about 25,000 bpd is expected to arrive in August via ship-to-ship transfer — the first Kuwaiti cargo since early March.
Italian refineries boosted jet-fuel output by 10% in the first four months of the year while imports fell 6%; domestic production covered about 70% of March–April demand. Eni raised capacity partly by importing semi-finished feedstock from outside Europe. This reflects a broader European strategy — onshore expansion plus long-haul sourcing — but the pace still trails the gap.
What policy levers remain before peak season?
Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah: "At the current pace, we still expect some degree of supply tightness before August."
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said in June that European jet-fuel stocks will tighten before the summer travel peak ends, and the Commission will coordinate strategic-reserve releases across member states if necessary.
This means → Europe's last card is tapping strategic reserves — a step normally taken only when a crisis escalates, and itself a signal that supply stress has arrived.
What is happening at the Strait of Hormuz?
Bloomberg, citing preliminary Kpler data: all six commodity tankers that passed through the Strait of Hormuz last Sunday had switched off their AIS (Automatic Identification System) transponders — so-called "dark transits." For three consecutive days before that, dark vessels outnumbered visible ones. Monday-morning AIS tracking showed no vessels transiting at all.
Over the past seven days Iran attacked four ships, all located northeast of Oman's Musandam Peninsula — vessels using the U.S.-backed southern route along the Omani coast. The IRGC said Sunday evening it had intercepted two ships on "illegal routes" deemed a threat to maritime safety.
In plain terms = there are now two routes through the strait. The northern route requires Iranian permission and risks sanctions exposure; the southern route risks Iranian attack. Caught between the two, more and more shipowners are choosing to go dark.
How is the two-route standoff evolving?
Bloomberg reports that observable transits via the U.S.-backed southern route stopped entirely last Wednesday; Iran's designated northern route still carried a small number of vessels as of last Saturday.
Washington and Tehran continue to contradict each other: Iran insists vessels must obtain Iranian clearance; U.S. Central Command maintains that a free-passage corridor remains open.
This means → the strait has not "closed," but normal, transparent transit has effectively collapsed. Whether Europe can restock jet fuel before peak season depends in large part on how this standoff unfolds.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.