Even if an agreement is reached, the clearance of 1500 stranded vessels is still fraught with difficulties

The US and Iran are moving towards an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the captains on approximately 1,500 vessels that have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for nearly three months have begun to ready themselves for action. However, before this narrow waterway, which once bore a fifth of the world's oil and gas transportation volume, can truly resume passage, there are still a long list of challenges to be addressed.

According to a New York Times report, shipping industry insiders generally anticipate that even if an agreement is reached, restoring the pre-war norm of over 130 vessels passing daily might still require several weeks or even months. This is why energy prices, despite being stimulated by positive talks, are difficult to fall rapidly.

The primary challenge is the establishment of passage order. Jacob Larsen, the Chief Security Officer of the Baltic and International Maritime Council, pointed out that vessels need to know who goes first, which route to take, and which department to apply to for permission. Considering the narrowest part of the strait is just 21 nautical miles, speed limits must also be set to prevent collisions and grounding.

At the same time, the mines reportedly laid by Iran in the strait pose a serious safety threat—British military sources have revealed that they include bottom-triggered mines that can release bubbles to the surface and severely damage the hull. The International Energy Agency estimates that it will take naval forces from countries like the US, UK, France, and Germany several weeks to deploy minesweepers, maintaining high shipping insurance rates for a considerable period.

The condition of the vessels themselves is equally concerning. Vessels stranded in the warm waters of the Persian Gulf have accumulated a significant amount of barnacles, marine life, and algae, affecting sailing performance.

引用 New York Times citing Rolf Habben Jensen, the Chief Executive Officer of the fifth-largest container shipping group in the world, Hapag-Lloyd, who mentioned that his company managed to get one ship out during the blockade, only to find that its top speed had been greatly reduced. Lasse Kristoffersen, the CEO of vehicle transportation giant Wallenius Wilhelmsen, estimates that even under the best circumstances, shipping would require at least 30 to 45 days to return to normal—assuming the situation evolves fully according to plan.

Shipping companies also face another concern: whether a sense of security can truly be established. Although attacks by the Houthi forces in the Red Sea have significantly decreased, many shipping companies are still avoiding the route to the Suez Canal. "The mere fear of what might happen is enough to dissuade us from taking that route," says Kristoffersen.

Dimitris Polymeros, a risk manager at maritime data company Kpler, predicts that even if an orderly transit mechanism can be established, the traffic volume may only recover to 40-50% of normal levels within the next three to four weeks. He believes the most likely scenario is "restricted passage"—where vessels can pass, but with limited routes, high war risk premiums, and extended waiting times.

Regarding the agreement itself, some industry insiders remain cautious. Ami Daniel, the CEO of maritime intelligence company Windward, noted that there is still a significant difference in the statements from both the US and Iran. "When the agreement can truly be signed remains to be seen," he cautions, also reminding that Trump has already declared the strait open twice, and shipping companies will naturally remain vigilant.